Philippine COVID-19 cases projected to reach 800,000 by end-2021

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines is expected to climb to 800,000 by the end of 2021 even if efforts against the virus are sustained, simulations conducted by experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) found.

Based on 1,000 scenarios run by the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team (UP PRT) and fitted to the actual data as of last Friday, December 25, 2020, the cumulative number of reported cases in the country will range between 700,000 to 1 million by December 2021. This corresponds to an average of around 19,000 deaths, excluding unreported cases.

The Philippines on Sunday reported 883 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 to bring the official tally to 469,886 as of December 27, 2020. This includes 437,678 recoveries and 9,109 deaths.

The simulation results assume that minimum health standards remain in place, and that localized lockdowns are still possible, and takes into consideration the availability of vaccines by mid-2021.

"Based on the projected epidemic curve, there is a big chance that the number of cases will have a continuous declining trend in 2021, assuming that testing, contact tracing, isolation, and compliance to minimum health standards in the 'new normal'," Jomar Rabajante of the UP PRT said in a post on social media.

The range of simulation results, Rajante explained, depended on several factors such as the physical opening or closure of schools, the opening of the economy under the new normal, and the compliance of citizens to minimum health standards.

President Rodrigo Duterte on Saturday took back his order allowing a dry run of face-to-face classes in January 2021, following reports of a new COVID-19 variant in the United Kingdom.

Rabajante said the simulation scenarios also considered the increased infectiousness of the virus, and the vaccination program that will likely start in mid-2021 with a maximum capacity of 1,500 complete vaccinations daily.

"These projections (agreement or deviations from these projections) can serve as guide, such as in monitoring the dynamics of COVID-19 spread in the country," he said. — DVM, GMA News