COVID-19 daily cases may peak in mid-January at earliest, in 20K–40K range —UP expert

The University of the Philippines COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team (UP PRT) projects that the daily number of reported cases of coronavirus disease could peak in mid-January 2022, and range from 20,000 to 40,000.

In an interview with Super Radyo dzBB on Wednesday, UP PRT spokesman Prof. Jomar Rabajante added, however, that if the increase is slower, the peak could occur in the third week of February.

"'Yung peak nitong Omicron natin may range from 20,000 to 40,000 cases... Mukhang nata-target natin ang upper bound. The peak might happen earliest ay mid ng January," said Rabajante, when asked about the worst case scenario of COVID-19 cases in the country.

(The peak of this Omicron may range from 20,000 to 40,000 cases... Looks like we will be seeing the upper bound. The peak might happen earliest in mid-January.)

"'Yung latest kasi posibleng bumagal, latest ay third week ng February. Within this period, a peak might happen [Latest, it might increase slowly, the latest peak would be at third week of February]," he added.

The Department of Health said cases may peak by end of January 2022 based on the current trend of infections. 

For independent team OCTA Research, however, it is too early to project if cases will peak by end of this month.

As early as November 2021?

Meanwhile, Rabajante also said they are seeing the possibility that local transmission was already happening in November 2021.

Earlier, the DOH said they have yet to detect if there is local transmission of the Omicron but noted that there is possibility that it is already in the communities.

"Actually ang isa dun sa nakita namin na pattern na nangyari yung... siyempre na-validate lang na may [possible] local transmission nung December [2021] pero using our model mukhang nangyari ito November [2021] pa lang," said Rabajante.

(We see the pattern that there may already be a possible local transmission in December 2021 but using our model, it already happened in November 2021.)

The Omicron coronavirus variant is also likely to be the dominant variant in the country, said Rabajante.

"Hindi mahihirapan na maging dominant ang Omicron sa Delta. Remember, early December, konti na lang ang Delta na nareport natin," he said.

(It is not difficult for Omicron to be more dominant than Delta. Remember, in early December, we are reporting fewer Delta cases.) — BM, GMA News