Omicron surge may have shorter time span than Delta's —expert

An infectious disease expert said Wednesday that the period when the Philippines would experience a high number of new COVID-19 infections due to the Omicron variant might be shorter compared to that of the Delta variant.

During a virtual health forum by the Philippine College of Physicians, Dr. Rontgene Solante of San Lazaro Hospital explained that the rise or fall of the number of cases is always dependent on the number of the vulnerable population.

In the case of the National Capital Region (NCR) where the bulk of infections were reported, he said that the vaccination rate is high.

Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairperson Benhur Abalos said Monday that as of 8 January, 10,534,251 or 107.49% of people in NCR have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Meanwhile, 11,185,801 or 114.14% received their first dose and 924,593 received the booster shots.

Considering also that those who have Omicron develop “less severe” symptoms with some manifesting only within five days, Solante said that this surge of new COVID-19 cases might then take less time.

“Yes, I think it will be something like less number of days compared to the Delta variant wherein we have a really long number of days when we have a number of cases -- almost two months,” he said.

Solante based this analysis on the situation in South Africa, where the Omicron variant was first detected in November.

On 30 December 2021, South Africa said that its latest coronavirus wave had likely passed its peak without a significant increase in deaths and thus its restrictions would already be eased.

Solante noted that most of the data showed that the Omicron variant typically presents mild symptoms especially if one is fully vaccinated, more so if one received a booster shot.

However, unvaccinated individuals are still susceptible to severe symptoms which may require hospitalization or death, he added.

“If most of the cases are only mild, then you only have a shorter duration of the symptoms. Chances are there will be a faster decrease in the number of cases also,” Solante said.

The Philippines' COVID-19 case count surpassed three million on Tuesday with 28,007 new infections, bringing the country's tally to 3,026,473.

Asked if he thinks that the country is already experiencing the peak of COVID-19 infections, Solante said that this is probably not the case yet.

“The next five days will be very crucial if there will be an uptrend. If there will still be an uptrend of cases, we would expect that we are not yet at the peak of this Omicron-variant driven surge,” he stressed.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David also said that it is still early to determine if COVID-19 cases will reach their peak by the end of January as there are a lot of variables that could happen this month based on the South Africa experience.

Solante further said that the government should prioritize protecting the immunocompromised as most of the mutations of the COVID-19 were found in this group, particularly those among who have HIV and cancer.

“The next variant of concern will also be in this group of individuals and likely in third world countries where the number of vaccinated population is still low,” he said.

He said this following the remark of molecular biologist Fr. Nic Austriaco that the more transmissible Omicron variant is the “beginning of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic,” claiming that it provides population immunity through the antibodies of those who have recovered. —LBG, GMA News