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NCR, Cavite, Rizal at 'moderate risk' for COVID-19 –OCTA

The risk classification of the National Capital Region (NCR), Cavite, and Batangas is at moderate for COVID-19 based on Covid Act Now, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Sunday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR is at 23.01.

Meanwhile, ADAR in Cavite is at 20.30, while Rizal is at 15.09.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

NCR’s COVID-19 case growth rate, on the other hand, is at -68%. Cavite and Rizal recorded -65% and -66% respectively.

Moderate risk means the ADAR per 100,000 population is from one to seven while high risk means it is more than seven. Minimal risk means that the ADAR is less than one.

The Department of Health (DOH) announced on Friday that the NCR’s risk classification went down from high risk to moderate risk.

According to OCTA, the COVID-19 reproduction rate is also “very low” on Saturday in NCR with 0.47, Cavite with 0.69, and Rizal with 0.54.

The reproduction number, which refers to the number of people infected by one case, in the NCR decreased to 0.47 from 0.50.

A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David however noted that Batangas, Laguna, and Quezon are still at high risk for COVID-19.

The COVID-19 case growth rate in Batangas is at -48%, Laguna is at -60%, and Quezon is at -28%.

There is also a “low” reproduction rate in Batangas with 0.89 and Laguna with 0.77, while Batangas is at “high” with 1.11.

“NCR could improve to low risk within two weeks if downtrend continues,” David said.

David then asked the public to strictly follow the minimum public health standards to bring the risk classification in NCR down to low risk.

The DOH on Saturday reported 17,382 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the nationwide tally to 3,528,796. —KG, GMA News