DOH: No cause for concern over increase in COVID-19 cases in 14 areas

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in 14 Alert Level 1 areas that Health Secretary Francisco Duque III mentioned on Monday isn't a cause for concern, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire has said.

In a news briefing on Tuesday, Vergeire said a slight uptick was recorded in the areas' one-week growth rate.

Vergeire said the 14 areas Duque referred to were in Region 4B, Region III, Region XI, Caraga, Region 1, Region 2, CAR, and Region 8.

“Itong areas na ito ay nagkakaroon ng konting pagtaas sa kaso. Nag-positive ang kanilang one week growth rate dahil ‘yung iba from zero case ay nagkaroon ng dalawa,” Vergerie said.

(These areas are experiencing a slight increase in cases. Their one week growth rate was positive because the others from zero cases had two.)

“But it doesn’t mean that the increases were significant…As I’ve said a while ago it’s less than 20, so it’s really not significant yet," she added.

Vergeire said the uptick had no effect on the areas' hospital utilization and bed utilization rates.

Duque on Monday mentioned the slight increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in 14 Alert Level 1 areas on President Rodrigo Duterte's Talk to the People.

The pronouncement was made after the Catholic observance of Holy Week, amid the Muslims' holy month of Ramadan, and the ongoing Eleksyon 2022 campaign.

Data from the DOH showed that from April 12-18 the country saw an average of 224 cases per day, a 17% lower tally compared to the cases reported the previous week.

Vergerie said the possible COVID-19 surge after the May 9 elections was only a projection.

“These are projections. Hindi natin alam kung ito ay mangyayari or hindi mangyayari. Ito ay ginagamit ng pamahalaan para ma-guide tayo sa pagpaplano at pagprepara at ma-inform ang ating mga kababayan," Vergeire said.

[We don't know if this will happen or not. It is used by the government to guide us in planning and preparation and to inform our countrymen],” Vergeire said.

The DOH warned the Philippines might experience another surge in COVID-19 infections by mid-May--with Metro Manila possibly recording as many as almost half a million active cases--if minimum public health standards (MPHS) were ignored.

It said that a 50% decrease in the compliance of MPHS in the National Capital Region (NCR) may result in 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day next month.

Based on the models, a 20% decrease in MPHS compliance nationwide may lead to around 34,788 active COVID-19 cases by mid-May. According to the DOH, over 564 of these cases could be classified as severe and 267 as critical.

Moreover, a 30% decrease in MPHS compliance might increase the cases further, possibly to as high as 300,000 over the same period.