NCR COVID-19 reproduction number at 1.5 –OCTA

Independent monitoring group OCTA Research on Monday said the COVID-19 reproduction number of the National Capital Region (NCR) was 1.5.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“Ni-recalibrate namin ‘yung reproduction number so medyo bumaba ng kaonti ‘yung value niya. Pero nasa mga 1.5 to 1.6 siya sa Metro Manila at saka dito sa ibang areas,” OCTA fellow Guido David said at the Laging Handa briefing.

(We recalibrated the reproduction number so its value decreased a bit. But it’s around 1.5 to 1.6 in Metro Manila and in other areas.)

David said NCR and some areas of Calabarzon, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Pampanga, Benguet, and Western Visayas have shown an increase in cases.

“Sa nakikita natin, tumataas na ‘yung bilang ng kaso pero hindi ganon kataas ‘yung nakikita nating nagiging bilang,” David said at the Laging Handa briefing.

(So we are seeing that cases are increasing, but not by much.)

He hoped that the peak in cases would come in the next one to two weeks.

“And then from there baka magkaroon na ng downward trend. Pero, again, these are just projections. Pwede magbago ang mga ito (these can change),” he said.

Meanwhile, David said the positivity rate in the NCR climbed to 8.3%. As of June 29, the positivity rate in the region was recorded at 7.5%.

He added healthcare utilization also remained low while the average daily attack rate was recorded at 3.6.

“Hindi pa ito napakataas kasi ‘yung cut-off ng Department of Health is 6. Pero may mga ibang LGUs sa Metro Manila, hindi ko lang mababanggit ngayon, na mas mataas na sa 6 ‘yung ADAR,” he said.

(This is not high because the cut-off of the DOH is 6. But there are some areas in Metro Manila, I can’t tell you yet which they are, that have an ADAR higher than 6.)

For David, the continuous increase of COVID-19 cases could be attributed to the Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.

The country recorded 93 cases of the BA.5 and three cases of the BA.4.

Meanwhile, David spoke of the qualities he would like to see in the next Health Secretary.

“And then ‘yung pag pili ng susunod na Secretary of Health na, you know, makabayan at talagang for the Filipino. ‘Yan ‘yung isa sa mga, you know, ‘yung nasa hope natin na gagawin ng ating bagong Pangulo,” he said.

(And then there’s the choice for the next Secretary of Health who needs to be patriotic and for the Filipino. That’s one of the things we hope the new president will do.) — DVM, GMA News