NCR COVID-19 positivity rate up to 11.5%; 1K cases expected Thursday –OCTA

COVID-19 positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 11.5%, which may bring up to 1,000 new cases on Thursday, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that the positivity rate in NCR went up to 11.5% from 10.9% on July 9.

Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

David said that if the new COVID-19 infections in NCR reach 1,000 on July 14, the peak may be delayed but "is still expected to happen soon."

"A look at the plot of new COVID-19 cases in the NCR as of July 13, 2022 shows that the trend may have already peaked. However, the positivity rate increased to 11.5% (from 10.9% as of July  9), and this could lead to more than 1000 new cases in the NCR on July 14," he said.

"If cases do increase, we still expect the peak to happen soon, unless the wave becomes prolonged," he added.

David noted that NCR’s reproduction number decreased to 1.36.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

Hospitalization rate up

The NCR's hospitalization rate, however, went up to 30.2%, with 1,856 hospital beds occupied. The intensive care unit (ICU) in NCR also slightly increased to 22.6%, but both are still “within safe levels,” according to OCTA.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Tuesday that the country may see an increase in hospital utilization rate by the end of August or start of September due to COVID-19 infections.

Citing projections, Vergeire warned that the COVID-19 cases nationally may escalate to 1,800 to 11,000 next month if the booster uptake will not be ramped up as the wall of immunity of some individuals will already wane by then.

This is also in consideration to the possible reduction of compliance to minimum public health standards by as much as 25% and if the current mobility patterns of the public will be maintained at current level.

The Philippines on Wednesday logged 1,604 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the active tally to 14,862. —KBK, GMA News