Infectious disease expert: COVID-19 cases may still peak in 3 to 5 days

Infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante on Sunday said that COVID-19 infections may still peak in the next three to five days given the number of cases in the country.

“But I don't think this peak will be longer compared to the other variants of concern dahil marami-rami na rin ang nakatanggap ng primary vaccine series,” Solante said during an interview on Super Radyo dzBB.

(In the next 3-5 days, we will have another peak. But I don’t think this peak will be longer compared to the other variants of concern because many have already received the primary vaccine series.)

He added that the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases was expected due to the Omicron BA.5 subvariant.

“This is expected as BA.5 is among the variants of concern, ito ang pinakamataas talaga ang hawaan… kailangan talaga mag ingat tayo lalo mababa pa rin ang booster population ng Pilipinas,” he said.

(This is expected. BA.5 is among the variants of concern, this is the most infectious… we need to be careful especially since the booster population of the Philippines is still low.)

The OCTA Research Group earlier said that the COVID-19 positivity rate in five provinces was over 20% while the National Capital Region's (NCR's) rate remained faster than 10%.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David showed data that Aklan’s positivity rate increased from 26.9% on July 9 to 31.9% on July 15.

The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

Other provinces seen surpassing the 20% benchmark are Tarlac (27.5%), Pampanga (23.5%), Nueva Ecijia (22.9%), and Laguna (22.55%).

Meanwhile, David said that the positivity rate in the NCR also jumped from 10.9% on July 9 to 12.6% on July 15.

Aside from the NCR, he noted that Antique, Bataan, Bulacan, Capiz, Cavite, Iloilo, Isabela, Pangasinan and Rizal all recorded a positivity rate of over 10%.

Alert Level 1 remains

Solante said that the Alert Level 1 status across most of the country would likely remain.

“Ang tingin ko, we will still maintain the Alert Level 1 dahil isa sa metrics na sinusundan natin ay healthcare utilization rate,” Solante said. “Bagama't tumataas ang kaso, hindi gaano naapektuhan ang healthcare utilization rate.”

(I think we will still maintain the Alert Level 1 because one of the metrics we follow is the healthcare utilization rate. Although the number of COVID-19 cases has increased, the healthcare utilization rate was only mildly affected.)

Malacañang on Saturday said the alert levels related to COVID-19 would remain in effect from July 16 until the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases reviews the situation on Monday, July 18.

Last week, the Department of Health (DOH) said the country may see an increase in hospital utilization rate by the end of August or the start of September.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire explained that based on projections, the COVID-19 cases nationally may escalate to 1,800 to 11,000 next month if the booster uptake will not be ramped up as the wall of immunity of some individuals would have waned by then.

This is also in consideration of the possible reduction of compliance to minimum public health standards by as much as 25%, and if the current mobility patterns of the public will be maintained at this level.

Flu vaccine

Meanwhile, Solante urged the public to get flu and pneumococcal vaccinations as it was the best way to have additional protection during the onset of flu season.

“Isa sa panawagan natin, maliban sa mga bakuna na natanggap natin especially sa mga may edad na, dalawa 'yan, flu and pneumococcal vaccines, para additional protection,” he said.

(One of our calls, apart from the vaccines we received especially for the elderly, there are two of these, flu and pneumococcal vaccines, for additional protection.)

“Ang flu vaccine ay annual. Ang start ng pagbakuna usually, May o June, ang peak ng influenza sa atin kasi, mag-start ng August ‘yan, September, October, November hanggang December na ‘yan,” he added.

(The flu vaccine is annual. The start of vaccinations is usually May or June, the peak of influenza for us starts in August, September, October, November to December.) — DVM, GMA News