COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR down to 0.99 — OCTA

The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to 0.99 after a week, according to independent monitoring group OCTA Research on Saturday.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the region’s reproduction number decreased to 0.99 on August 23 from 1.02 on August 16.

According to David, the last time that the reproduction number in the NCR was less than one was on May 11.

NCR Reproduction Number decreased to 0.99. Weekly positivity rate decreased to 13.6% from 14.7%. NCR ADAR at 6.96 per 100k. Healthcare utilization also decreased to 35%. Cases have decreased to 1000 per day and expected to decrease below 600 by end of September. #COVID @dzbb pic.twitter.com/WIyEY1tkYY

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 27, 2022

The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case.

A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David said that the weekly positivity rate also decreased to 13.6% on August 25 from 14.7% on August 18.

Meanwhile, the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region is 6.96 per 100,000 population.

ADAR refers to the average number of new cases during a certain period per 100,000 people.

David, however, said that new cases in the NCR are declining at a "slow rate."

"With the current pace, it could take eight weeks before the positivity rate decreases to less than 5% (low positivity rate based on the [guidelines of the] World Health Organization)," he said.

He said that new cases in the region are expected to drop to less than 600 by the end of September.

David said both the COVID-19 healthcare utilization rate and intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy in the region dropped to 35% and 27%, respectively, on August 25, from 37% and 31%, respectively, on August 20.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DOH) on Friday said the country may see at least 9,000 COVID-19 cases daily by the end of September to October if the minimum health protocols are not followed in light of the resumption of face-to-face classes earlier this week.

The department also reported that the daily average of 3,231 COVID-19 cases nationwide was 14% lower than the previous week.

Severe and critical cases, currently below 1,000, also showed signs of plateauing, the DOH said. —VBL, GMA News