Ex-president Duterte, Sotto, Tulfo top potential senatorial bets in survey

Former president Rodrigo Duterte, former senator Vicente "Tito" Sotto III, and ACT-CIS Partylist Representative Erwin Tulfo topped the senatorial survey conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics in the first quarter of 2024.

According to the survey conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics, Duterte (53%), Sotto (53%), and Tulfo (52%) tied for first to third places given the poll's margin of error and also obtained high awareness ratings ahead of the 2025 senatorial race.

Included in the list were (based on ranking):

Isko Moreno - 45%
Manny Pacquiao - 43%
Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa - 41%
Christopher “Bong” Go - 40%
Doctor Willie Ong - 35%
Imee Marcos - 35%
Vico Sotto - 35%
Pia Cayetano - 35%
Ramon Revilla Jr. - 32%
Panfilo Lacson - 32%
Lito Lapid - 30% 

"Candidates like Duterte, Sotto, Tulfo, Moreno, and Pacquiao exhibit both high awareness (above 89%) and a strong voting preference (above 43%). This correlation suggests that their public visibility positively influences their electoral appeal," said Dr. Joseph Mercado, Oculum's chief statistician.

Meanwhile, candidates such as Leni Robredo, Gregorio Honasan, Manuel Roxas III, and Kiko Pangilinan have significantly lower voting preferences (below 23%) despite having high awareness levels (above 87%).

Oculum said that although these candidates are well-known, their popularity does not necessarily translate into electoral support from the public.

The survey underscores the importance of public visibility and perceived competence in influencing voter preferences for senatorial candidates.

It stressed that high awareness often correlates with higher voting preference. However, this is not universally the case, as seen with some well-known candidates with lower voting intent percentages.

"The data also highlights the dynamic nature of voter preference, which many factors, including political campaigns, current events, and the evolving public perception of candidates, can influence," Mercado said.

The Oculum 2024 first-quarter national survey was conducted from February 21 to 29, 2024. A total of 3,000 respondents, aged 18 years old and above, were interviewed face-to-face.

There were 335 respondents from the National Capital Region, 645 from Northern and Central Luzon, 690 from Southern Luzon, 615 from the Visayas, and 715 from Mindanao, ensuring representation. 

Oculum said the survey has a margin of error of ± 2 percentage points and a high confidence level of 97%.—RF, GMA Integrated News