Sara’s lead narrows to 33% Leni surges to 21%, OCTA survey shows

Vice President Sara Duterte’s lead in early preferences for the 2028 presidential race has narrowed to 33%, while Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo surged to 21%, based on the latest OCTA Research survey released Friday.

Conducted from March 19 to 25, the Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey showed Duterte with 33% preference, which declined from 38% in the previous quarter. 

Robredo climbed to 21% from 8% in Q4 2025, marking a 13-point increase, which is the largest gain among all potential candidates.

With this, the lead of Duterte over Robredo shrank from 30 percentage points in late 2025 down to 12 points.

The two were followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 10%, which is an increase from 8%. Senator Raffy Tulfo declined to 9% from 12%. Meanwhile, Senator Bam Aquino maintained 4% from the previous quarter.

OCTA said 2% of the respondents are “undecided” and 1% of them “refused.” 

Other personalities account for 20%, indicating that preferences beyond the top five remain widely distributed and fragmented, OCTA added.

The non-commissioned survey used face-to-face interviews covering 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female.

According to OCTA, the survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have margins of error of ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, also at a 95% confidence level. —VAL, GMA News