Sara’s lead narrows, Leni's number increases in OCTA early presidential preference survey

Vice President Sara Duterte’s numbers in early preferences for the 2028 presidential race dipped to 33%, while Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo surged to 21%, based on the latest OCTA Research survey released Friday.

Duterte’s lead has contracted from 30 to 12 points from the last survey, indicating a "more competitive preference landscape," OCTA said.

Conducted from March 19 to 25, the Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey showed Duterte with 33% preference, which declined from 38% in the previous quarter. 

Robredo climbed to 21% from 8% in Q4 2025, marking a 13-point increase, which is the largest gain among all potential candidates.

The two were followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 10%, which is an increase from 8%. Senator Raffy Tulfo declined to 9% from 12%. Meanwhile, Senator Bam Aquino maintained 4% from the previous quarter.

OCTA said 2% of the respondents are “undecided” and 1% of them “refused.” 

Other personalities account for 20%, indicating that preferences beyond the top five remain widely distributed and fragmented, OCTA added.

The non-commissioned survey used face-to-face interviews covering 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female.

According to OCTA, the survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have margins of error of ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, also at a 95% confidence level. —VAL, GMA News