VP Sara leads 46% while Leni rises to 35% in 2028 polls matchup per OCTA survey

Vice President Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner with 46% but Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo earned 35%, making the gap narrower in a hypothetical 2028 head-to-head presidential race, according to the latest OCTA Research survey released Monday.

Conducted March 19 to 25, the Tugon ng Masa (TNM) Q1 2026 non-commissioned survey also showed 19% of respondents remained undecided. 

Respondents were asked: “If the May 2028 elections were held today, who will you vote for as President?”
(Kung ang eleksyon ng Mayo 2028 ay isasagawa ngayon, sino ang inyong iboboto para sa pagka-Presidente?)

“While VP Duterte continues to hold a clear national lead, the current margin is narrower than what OCTA observed in comparable commissioned TNM surveys over the past year, where VP Duterte led Mayor Robredo by margins ranging from roughly 20 to 30 percentage points,” OCTA said.

“The Q1 2026 results therefore point to a more competitive and less settled electoral landscape entering 2026,” it added.

Duterte announced in February that she will run for president in the 2028 national elections. Former vice president Robredo however, on Tuesday said she will not run in the 2028 national elections, as she plans to seek another term as the city's top local government executive.

By area

Based on the survey results, Duterte’s support remains strongest in Mindanao with 88% and the Visayas with 53%, forming what OCTA described as a “broad and electorally efficient coalition.” 

Meanwhile, Robredo posted higher support in key vote-rich areas, particularly the National Capital Region with 52% and Balance Luzon (the rest of Luzon outside NCR) with 47%. 

OCTA noted that while Duterte has the advantage in terms of 'clear national reach' given the support she has in Mindanao and Visayas as well as continued strength among lower-income voters, "Robredo remains competitive" as her backing is concentrated in “politically strategic and vote-dense areas.”

Socioeconomic classes

By socioeconomic class, Duterte led across all groups, with her strongest support among Class E voters at 56%, followed by Class ABC at 46% and Class D at 44%. 

Meanwhile, Robredo performed best among Class ABC voters at 39% and Class D at 36% “but continues to trail more substantially among lower-income respondents,” OCTA said.

The undecided and the race

The 19% of undecided respondents could still shape the race, according to OCTA. The research group noted that “nearly one in five respondents remain uncommitted, indicating that a substantial segment of the electorate remains open to persuasion.”

“Taken together, the Q1 2026 findings suggest that VP Duterte remains the candidate to beat in a hypothetical 2028 head-to-head contest, but Mayor Robredo remains viable, competitive, and regionally resilient,” OCTA said.

“The race is no longer defined simply by who leads, but by how each candidate’s coalition is distributed—and how much of the remaining electorate is still in play,” it added.

OCTA noted that the "findings reflect an early-stage hypothetical vote-intention measure and should be interpreted as a snapshot of current public sentiment, not a prediction of electoral outcomes."

Survey details

The survey used face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female.

OCTA said the survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. "Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have margins of error of ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, also at a 95% confidence level," it added. —KG, GMA News