EXPLAINER: Is the record-low fertility rate good or bad news for the Philippines?

The fertility rate in the Philippines dropped to a record low in 2025, with the total fertility rate (TFR) of Filipinos aged 15 to 49 decreasing over the past three decades, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Is this good or bad news for the Philippines—a country of over 112 million people?

Citing data from the PSA, GMA News' DigiLab reported that the TFR in the Philippines was 4.1 children per woman in 1993.

This means that on average, every woman aged 15 to 49 years old had four children.

However by 2025, the TFR was only 1.7 or only one to two children per Filipina in the age group.

The figure is much lower than the 2.1 replacement level fertility or the required number of children to replace their parents and have a stable population.

The TFR is the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if she were to bear children at the current age-specific fertility rates.

Impact to economy

Experts said having a low fertility rate in a country has both disadvantages and benefits.

The International Monetary Fund said that a low fertility rate can be a hindrance to economic progress due to fewer workers or number of people working, earning money, spending and saving.

The number of taxpayers will also be smaller, which might possibly lead to funding gaps, or fewer funds for government programs.

Further, innovations could slow down.

"A shortage of researchers, inventors, scientists, and other people-based sources of innovative ideas could also hurt economic progress," the International Monetary Fund said.

Investing per child

Meanwhile, some experts said that a country's low fertility rate can be beneficial.

According to a study cited by the Population Connection, an advocacy organization in the United States that promotes universal access to reproductive healthcare and family planning, the fewer children a couple has, the more they can allocate to expenses and investment per child.

Thus, despite the slow workforce in a country with a low fertility rate, the quality of workers will be higher.

Adair Turner, economist and co-chairman of the Energy Transitions Commissions in the United Kingdom, said an increase in the dependency ratio or the increase in the number of dependents compared to the number of working-age population, will not be a problem.

Babies and children are included in the dependency ratio. Thus if fewer people are born, the dependent population will also decrease.

"[I]f birth rates do increase, the total dependency ratio will rise even faster than before until those children enter the workforce two decades later. A smaller number of children would reduce the youth dependency ratio for the next two decades," Turner said.

Teenage pregnancy

In the Philippines, teenage pregnancy has also decreased along with the decline of its total fertility rate.

From 10.1% in 2013, only 4.8% of women 15 to 19 years old became pregnant in 2025, although many of the young mothers are from vulnerable sectors or those with low education come from poor families.

Institutional births—or those who give birth in facilities with adequate equipment and trained healthcare personnel such as hospitals, birthing centers, or clinics—have also increased.

The number of under-five mortality, or those children who die before they reach five years old has also decreased, as well as the infant mortality or the death of a baby before their first birthday, and the neonatal mortality or children who die within 28 days of their birth.

The number of children who have been given basic antigens or vaccines has increased, while the percentage of wives who said they experience physical, sexual, or emotional abuse from their partner decreased.

Wealth and children

Meanwhile, the Commission on Population and Development said that although the decline in fertility and birth rates in the Philippines is a positive economic indicator, the government should intensify programs for reproductive health education, teaching life skills, access to adolescent-friendly health services, reducing school dropouts, and combating poverty.

The PSA survey also shows that poor families have more children compared to the rich. Women with less education also have more children.

"Population and reproductive health policies and strategies must be explicitly integrated with socioeconomic development strategies. Education and access to information are still key in ensuring that Filipinos achieve the number of children they desire, when they want it," said Undersecretary Lisa Grace Bersales of the Commission on Population and Development.

With the world population at 8.2 billion as of 2025, there will likely be more people aged 80 and over than babies by 2030, according to the United Nations.

By 2080, there will be more people aged 65 and over than children aged 18 and under.

One of the reasons is the decline in the global fertility rate, or the declining number of women getting pregnant and giving birth in many countries, including the Philippines. — VDV, GMA News