Leni-Raffy, Sara-Imee in statistical tie in latest OCTA Survey

A hypothetical presidential and vice presidential tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo and that of Vice President Sara Duterte with Sen. Imee Marcos are a "statistical toss-up" in the latest OCTA survey for the 2028 National Elections.

According to the results of OCTA's Tugon ng Masa (TNM) Survey released on Wednesday, 45% of Filipinos would vote for a Leni-Raffy tandem while 42% will vote for a Sara-Imee tandem.

OCTA described the result as a "statistical dead heat" because of the ±3% margin of error "making this statistically a toss-up rather than a decisive advantage for either side."

"Viewed against the TNM series as a whole, Robredo–Tulfo and Duterte–Marcos are now the most competitive tandem pairing OCTA has recorded," OCTA said in its findings.

The polling firm called it a “dramatic multi-quarter shift for this match-up" as the previous survey showed that the Duterte-Marcos tandem led the Robredo-Tulfo tandem by 15 to 20 points.

Meanwhile, 8% said they would vote for neither, and another 4% remained undecided, while 1% refused to answer the survey.

Regional battleground

OCTA also said that this hypothetical race is "sharply regionalized."

"Robredo–Tulfo is strongest in Balance Luzon and NCR and leads in several individual regions, while Duterte–Marcos is anchored overwhelmingly in Mindanao, with the Visayas standing out as the most closely contested battleground," OCTA explained.

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem leads in Balance Luzon and Metro Manila at 61% and 56% respectively. The Duterte-Marcos claimed Mindanao almost entirely with 90%.

Visayas would appear to be a key battleground, with the pairs tying there at 45% each.

OCTA also noted that there is a socioeconomic class divide, with the Robredo-Tulfo tandem leading among Class ABCD, and the Duterte-Marcos duo leading Class E.

“This pattern suggests that Robredo–Tulfo’s coalition draws more heavily from middle- and lower-middle-income voters, while Duterte–Marcos’s base is concentrated among the poorest households,” OCTA said.

In terms of age, the Duterte-Marcos have a stronghold in the working age group: leading among Filipinos aged 25 to 44 years old. The Robredo-Tulfo duo leads in the opposite ends of this age bracket, the youngest of voters (ages 18 to 24) and the older group (ages 55 to 64 years old.)

OCTA also found that Robredo-Tulfo led among those with vocational education, while Duterte-Marcos was the choice among college graduates.

The polling firm interviewed 1,200 respondents ages 18 years old and above from July 4 to 11. The respondents were from Metro Manila, Balance Luzon (Luzon areas outside of Metro Manila), Visayas and Mindanao. —VAL, GMA News