OCTA: Sara Duterte leads Leni Robredo in 2028 matchup, but advantage narrows

Vice President Sara Duterte remains the preferred choice over Naga City Mayor and former vice president Leni Robredo in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup for the 2028 presidential election, although her lead has narrowed since the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey released by OCTA Research.

The second-quarter 2026 survey found 43% of adult Filipinos would vote for Duterte, while 34% preferred Robredo. Another 22% said they were undecided, would choose neither candidate, or declined to answer.

The results gave Duterte a nine-point lead over Robredo, down from an 11-point advantage recorded in the first quarter of 2026, when she garnered 46% support against Robredo's 35%.

"The tightening is worth reading carefully. At the national level, the movement on both sides is modest: Robredo’s support was essentially flat, moving from 35% to 34%, while Duterte’s declined by three points, from 46% to 43%, and the undecided/none/don’t know bloc grew from 19% to 22%," OCTA Research said.

"Comparing two independent survey waves carries a combined margin of error of roughly ±4.2 points nationally, so these national shifts are directionally consistent with some softening in Duterte’s support, but on their own they are suggestive rather than statistically confirmed," it added.

Background

The July 2026 TNM survey was conducted from July 4 to 11, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult respondents aged 18 and above nationwide.

The survey employed probability-based sampling and has a ±3 percentage point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

"The survey was conducted during a period marked by significant political, economic, and environmental developments. Although the survey does not establish causal relationships between these developments and respondents’ voting preferences, situating the findings within the broader political and socioeconomic environment provides important context for interpreting the results," the poll firm said.

Voting preference

Across the four major geographic areas, voting preference is sharply divided, according to OCTA.

Duterte and Robredo were statistically tied in the National Capital Region, each garnering 34% support, while 32% of respondents remained undecided, chose neither candidate, or declined to answer.

Robredo led in Balance Luzon with 51% support against Duterte's 27%. Duterte, meanwhile, dominated the Visayas, 51% to 26%, and posted her strongest regional performance in Mindanao, where she secured 76% support compared with Robredo's 6%.

Across socioeconomic classes, Duterte led among Class D respondents, 43% to 36%, and Class E, 51% to 31%. Among Class ABC, Duterte received 36%, Robredo 27%, while another 36% were undecided or opted for neither candidate.

The survey also showed notable differences by age. Duterte held a slim lead among respondents aged 18 to 24, with 38% support versus Robredo's 33%, while 29% remained undecided or chose neither candidate. Her strongest backing came from those aged 25 to 34, where she garnered 61% support compared with Robredo's 14%.

She also leads among respondents aged 35 to 44 (47% versus 33%) and 45 to 54 (45% versus 34%).

Robredo, however, leads among older respondents: 47% to 35% among those aged 55 to 64, 47% to 26% among those aged 65 to 74, and 61% to 32% among those aged 75 and above. —LDF, GMA News