OCTA sees 'uncharacteristic spike' in COVID-19 cases in Iligan City

Independent group OCTA Research on Thursday observed an "uncharacteristic spike" in new COVID-19 cases in Iligan City after its reproduction number increased to over 2.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said Iligan’s reproduction number, which refers to the number of people being infected by one case, jumped from 0.40 to 2.34.

“Is this due to omicron? There is no evidence to support it at this time, but the possibility is there,” David said in a tweet as he urged the testing of individuals coming from Lanao del Norte.

For its part, the Department of Health said reproduction number should be the sole determinant if an area has an increase in cases or if the government should be alarmed over the case trends.

In a media forum on Thursday, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said reproduction number “is affected by a lot of factors.”

“That’s why we don’t use it as the sole determinant if an area has increasing cases or we should be alarmed of the case trends in an area. Marami pa ho tayong tinitignan [we look at other factors],” she added.

At present, Vergeire said Iligan has a two-week growth rate of 200% and an average daily attack rate of 0.52 per 100,000 population.

Iligan is classified as low risk for COVID-19.

Vergeire said the average number of new cases in Iligan was at 27 from December 2 to 15, an increase from the average of 9 cases from November 18 to December 7.

“So kung tinignan, kinumpara, 9 dati… compared it with the 27 talagang 200% po ang pagtaas pero kailangan tignan natin ito against the total population kung ano po ang nagiging epekto nitong mga bagong kaso ito and of course with the health systems capacity,” she said.

(If you compare the 9 to 27, there’s an increase of 200%, but this should be compared to the total population and, of course, the health systems capacity.)

“So hindi lang po dapat isang metric and tinitignan natin. But of course we are closely monitoring these areas na nagpapakita ng ganito,” she added.

(So we should not look at a single metric. But of course, we are closely monitoring these areas.)

Based on the agency’s data and reports, Vergeire said it has also not identified clusters in Iligan, meaning its cases are scattered across the area.  —KBK, GMA News