PAGASA: Up to 4 tropical cyclones may enter PAR until end of 2026

At least four tropical cyclones are expected to enter or form in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in November and December 2026, according to the state weather bureau PAGASA.

Based on its climate outlook, the expected storms per month are as follows:

• November 2026: 1 or 2
• December 2026: 1 or 2

Between January and April 2027, two more tropical cyclones may enter the country, PAGASA added.

• January 2027: 0 or 1
• February 2027: Slim Chance
• March 2027: Slim Chance
• April 2027: 0 or 1

PAGASA said a strong to very strong El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific and is predicted to persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026.

However, its associated impacts may continue through the first half of 2027.

During a press briefing in Makati City, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said most parts of the country will experience less rainfall until May 2027.

"So actually, most parts or all parts of our country will be receiving less rainfall until May 2027. Meaning, a significant reduction of rainfall of more than 60%," Solis said Thursday.

"So most vulnerable areas are those areas that are not receiving rain normally. Those areas are situated along the western section of the country, including Panay area and MIMAROPA area," she added.

The climate outlook stated that in November 2026, way below-to-below normal rainfall conditions will be observed over most parts of the country except in Davao City, Davao del Norte, and Agusan del Norte, which may receive near-normal rainfall.

From December 2026 to January 2027, way below to below normal rainfall is expected across the country

Meanwhile, way below normal rainfall is forecasted in most parts of the country from February to April 2027.

According to PAGASA, hotter-than-usual conditions will be experienced over most of the country in the coming 6 months.

The state weather bureau earlier said the average temperature across the Philippines is set to rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius during the ElNiño phenomenon.

Several government agencies have also launched their initiatives, plans, and technology that they plan to use to mitigate the effects of the extreme heat and dry conditions.

The public has also been advised to start storing and conserving water due to possible supply shortages once the drought worsens. —LDF, GMA News