EXPLAINER: What is Super El Niño?

A change is currently occurring in the Pacific Ocean that could trigger extreme weather conditions around the world, including heavy rainfall, severe flooding, droughts, heatwaves, and stronger typhoons in different regions.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm surface waters toward Asia and Australasia.

On the eastern side of the Pacific near the Americas, colder water rises from the ocean depths. This temperature contrast helps drive rainfall patterns, with warmer waters in the west leading to more precipitation.

This system is disrupted during an El Niño event. The trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to shift back toward the central and eastern Pacific. This alters ocean temperatures, rainfall patterns, wind systems, and global weather conditions.

El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years. However, a rare and more intense version—known as a “Super El Niño”—has been recorded only a few times since the 1950s and could potentially develop in 2026.

A Super El Niño is defined by sea surface temperature anomalies of at least 2°C above average in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a forecast by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released on April 9, there is a 1-in-4 chance that a very strong or Super El Niño could develop.

It may emerge between May and July 2026 and could last until the end of the year. Experts warn it could contribute to record-high temperatures in 2026 or 2027.

Possible impacts include prolonged droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia, heavy rainfall and flash floods in parts of South America, and stronger typhoons affecting regions such as Hawaii, Japan, China, and the Philippines.

Experts stressed that forecasts may still change. However, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has already placed the country under El Niño Watch and urged early preparation for possible impacts on agriculture, water supply, energy, public health, and safety.—With data from GMA News Feed, Vince Angelo Ferreras/MCG, GMA News