PAGASA forecasts up to 13 tropical cyclones amid El Niño conditions until November 2026

Nine to 13 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the country until the end of 2026 amid the presence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, PAGASA said Monday.

According to DOST-PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis, historically, rainfall during El Niño happens.

“Historically speaking, meron po tayong mga ganon na mga typhoon at super typhoon category,” Solis said in a press conference for the Typhoon and Flood Awareness Week (TFAW).

(Historically speaking, we have had those types of storms reach typhoon and super typhoon categories.)

“May mga instances din po na tropical storm lang siya, low pressure area siya, pero maulan din siya kapag panahon ng habagat,” Solis added.

(There are also instances where a weather system is only a tropical storm or a low pressure area, but it still brings heavy rain during the southwest monsoon season.)

PAGASA forecasted two to four tropical cyclones (TCs) for the months of July and August, two to three in September, and one to two in both October and November.

Solis said among the examples of rainfall during El Niño are tropical storm Ondoy and typhoons Pepeng, Uwan, and Milenyo.

According to PAGASA, during El Niño, the formation of tropical cyclones is far from the pacific.

“So dahil malayo po yung tropical cyclone development niya, pag pumasok po yan sa atin, so it’s either marami po siyang moisture or malakas ang hangin po,” Solis explained.

(Because its development occurs far away, once the tropical cyclone enters our territory, it will either carry a heavy amount of moisture or bring strong winds.) –NB, GMA News