El Niño conditions now present in tropical Pacific — PAGASA

Conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific and have a high chance of developing into a full-blown El Niño phenomenon that will last until early next year, weather service PAGASA said Tuesday.

"In May 2026, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold. Additionally, most climate models suggest there is over an 80% probability that this will develop into a full-blown El Niño event, which is likely to persist until early 2027," the state weather bureau said.

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean leading to below normal rainfall.

The state weather bureau earlier announced the onset of the rainy season.

However, PAGASA earlier warned that there was a 92% chance that the Habagat may coincide with a Super El Niño from June to August this year. This is expected to cause more heavy rainfall due to the enhanced Habagat.

"El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas," said PAGASA.

"However, above-normal rainfall conditions may still occur, particularly over the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon (i.e., Habagat) season, especially when enhanced by tropical cyclone activity."

PAGASA advised areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during the Habagat season and areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions to take appropriate preparation measures. — VDV, GMA News