State weather bureau PAGASA said there is now an 82 percent chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026.

While intermittent rains continue to occur in some areas, forecasters said prolonged hot and humid conditions remain possible.

According to PAGASA, dry conditions may emerge if rainfall drops below normal levels for consecutive months.

“Sa amin yung sinasabi namin na climatological condition. Posible na yung dalawang buwan na below normal yung ulan, dry condition. Dry spell naman yung tatlong buwan na sunod-sunod na below normal,” Engr. Jose Estrada Jr., chief meteorological officer of PAGASA-Dagupan, said.

The weather phenomenon could pose risks to the agriculture sector, particularly if drought conditions develop. PAGASA noted that drought is characterized by five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.

Forecasters said the probability of El Niño forming could increase further, reaching 92% or higher during the latter part of the year.

“Syempre asahan natin na bababang 10 percent yung production natin lalo na sa rice, vegetables kasi yan ang inaasahan pag kulang ang tubig natin,” Estrada said.

Authorities warned that some provinces could experience extreme heat, drying and cracking of soil, and declining river water levels if El Niño intensifies.

In response, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) has issued advisories encouraging the public to conserve water amid concerns over possible supply shortages.

Some residents in Dagupan City like Vicky Coloma said they have already experienced intermittent disruptions in water service.

“Kung minsan, nawawala yung tubig pero nagkakaroon din,” Coloma said.

The DENR, together with the Water Resources Management Office and the National Water Resources Board, plans to reimplement water management measures used during the 2023-2024 drought.

The agency said access to clean drinking water, sanitation services and water supply for medical facilities will remain among its top priorities as authorities prepare for the possible effects of El Niño.