DOST looking into dengue outbreak prediction tool

The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) is looking into a statistical model that readily predicts the threat of dengue outbreaks in public elementary and high schools.

The School-based Mosquito Abundance Model (SMAM) is a study that offers a method of predicting mosquito density in schools without having to do active surveillance.

The study is led by Dr. Lilian De Las Llgas and Dr. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, both from the University of the Philippines.

“We are offering this model as a science-based contribution to the dengue control efforts. The results will be an important prediction for dengue cases and eventually for outbreak prevention,” said De Las Llagas in a press statement.

The study employs a climate-driven model to predict mosquito density in schools across the four climate types in the Philippines. Schools are chosen targets sites for the study because of the prevalence of dengue fever.

With the study, risk of dengue transmission can be predicted and benefits can be computed, De Las Llagas said.

Data from July 2015 to February 2016 are used by the two researchers to yield a 12-month data prediction.

De Las Llagas and Bersales will officially present the study in the 34th Anniversary of the DOST Philippine Council for Health Research and Development on March 17.

This is part of the government’s effort to reduce dengue cases in the country. Last month, the Department of Health distributed dengue vaccines in three regions with the highest number of dengue cases in the country.

Starting next month, dengue vaccine will be administered to students aged nine-years old and above in six-month intervals. — Kiersnerr Gerwin Tacadena/TJD, GMA News