Earthquake prediction impossible, punishable by law –PHIVOLCS

State seismologists have warned the public anew not to believe earthquake predictions. The call echoed previous warnings underscoring the unpredictability of quakes—and the legal implications of such predictions.

PHIVOLCS' statement on April 4 was in reaction to a spate of fake news following a moderate quake the night before in Batangas that was also felt across Metro Manila.

While scientists can assess the likelihood of an earthquake based on historical data, it is currently impossible to predict the specific time, place, and strength of an impending quake.

PHIVOLCS director Renato Solidum himself has gone public numerous times to expose earthquake prediction hoaxes. 

"Di namin kaya (mag-predict ng lindol). Kahit sa US o Japan, di ginagawa yan," he once said in response to prediction hoaxes that spread via SMS. 

In 2015, PHIVOLCS warned of possible legal action against a Facebook account that was spreading earthquake predictions.

"At present, the science of earthquake prediction has not yet matured to the point that imminent earthquakes can be predicted [time, location and size of earthquakes] using a rational model," PHIVOLCS said in a statement. "There is no technology in the world that can reliably predict the occurrence of earthquakes."

On Wednesday, Malacañang also reminded the public not to share unverified information regarding the quake.

“We ask our people, especially the residents of the province of Batangas, to remain vigilant and alert in light of last night’s earthquake. Let us refrain from forwarding news from unverified sources that may cause undue alarm and panic,” presidential spokesperson Ernesto Abella said in a statement to reporters.

“PHIVOLCS-DOST has not made any predictions of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions as a consequence of the Magnitude 5.5 earthquake,” he added.

Republic Act No. 10639, which mandates local telecommunications companies to send free mobile alerts in the event of disaster or calamity, metes a penalty of up to six months in prison and a maximum fine of P10,000 to "any person who gives false or misleading data or information" concerning emergencies. — with a  report by Trisha Macas/TJD/BM, GMA News