SWS says it asks the same question as BSP on economic outlook surveys

The Social Weather Stations (SWS) on Friday said it is asking the same question used by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in its surveys on respondents’ outlook on the economy.

In its special report, SWS said that since 1998 it has been asking Filipino adults about their evaluation of the Philippine Economy in the coming 12 months.

“The difference between the proportions of ‘Optimists’ (those who answered ‘Will be better’) and ‘Pessimists’ (‘Will be worse’) gives what SWS calls the Net Economic Optimism score,” it said.

“A similar question is used by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in its quarterly Consumer Expectations Survey (CES),” it said.

The research body asked respondents in its July 3 to 6, 2020 National Mobile Phone Survey the question: “Sa darating na 12 buwan, ano sa palagay mo ang mangyayari sa ekonomiya ng Plipinas? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay bubuti, kapareho lang, sasama, o hindi alam?”

Likewise, the BSP Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) asked respondents: “Ano sa palagay mo ang magiging estado ng ekonomiya ng ating bansa sa susunod na 12 buwan? Options: Better, Same, Worse.”

“Like SWS, BSP’s Consumer Outlook Index on the Economic Condition in the next 12 months is a net figure, computed by subtracting the % who gave a ‘negative’ response from the % who gave an ‘affirmative’ response,” SWS said.

“[T]he BSP’s measure of economic optimism strongly agrees with the SWS Net Economic Optimism series,” it said.

BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno downplayed the results of the SWS survey showing 40% of Filipinos expect the country’s economy to worsen in the next 12 months.

Diokno said the SWS was only “based on perception of 2,000 adults.”

In its July 3 to 6 National Mobile Phone Survey, SWS found that two out of five adult Filipinos or 40% expect the economy to be bleaker in the next 12 months, while 24% of adult Filipinos are expecting the economy to stay the same and 30% believe it will improve.

The SWS poll was taken using mobile phone and computer-assisted telephone interviews of 1,555 adult Filipinos aged 18 years old and above nationwide. Of the 1,555 respondents, 306 were from the National Capital Region, 451 from Balance Luzon, 388 in the Visayas, and 410 in Mindanao.

Meanwhile, the BSP’s CES conducted from January 20 to February 10 surveyed 5,555 households — 2,770 or 49.9% were from NCR and 2,785 or 50.1% from areas outside NCR.

Since the BSP survey was conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak in the country, results showed that consumer outlook remained positive at 1.26%, albeit lower than 1.31% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019. — DVM, GMA News