Salceda says inflation may shoot up to 8.1% if Ukraine-Russia war persists

House ways and means committee chairperson Joey Salceda on Monday said the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services in the country may go to as high as 8.1% if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues.

Salceda floated the possibility that the inflation can go further up from the 5.4% in May as reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority.

“I have my own model tapos ‘yung base last year was slow so I think it can shoot up to 8.1 [percent]. Depende ‘yan kung hindi titigil ang Ukraine at ang Russia. Mukhang ayaw namang tumigil e kasi mukhang we will see an escalation, especially with the EU (European Union) coming together to really fight the war,” he said in an ANC interview.

“But I would say that 80% of the inflation is external shot, so and problema ko ‘yung second round effects. Handa naman ang ating economic team kung ano ang gagawin,” he added.

(I have my own model and the base last year was slow so I think it can shoot up to 8.1%. That depends on whether the war between Ukraine and Russia will continue. That seems so and we might see an escalation, especially with the EU coming together to really fight the war. But I would say that 80% of inflation is external shot, so my problem is the second round effects. Our economic team is ready for any contingency.)

May’s inflation rate was faster than the 4.9% rate in April and 4.1% in the same month last year.

It also brought the year-to-date figure at 4.1%, already exceeding the 3.9% full-year average in 2021 but still within the 3.7% to 4.7% target range set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee.

To address this looming problem, Salceda said the national government should work on the protection of poor Filipinos and ensuring food security in the country.

“Sa pananaw ko (I think), the right thing to do there is really, unang-una is focus on the poor kasi the rich could take care of itself. This thing will not last naman kasi mas malaking global problem is the need for disinflation,” he added.

Salceda thus called on the public to support the appointees of President-elect Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., saying that he has a “pretty good economic team who could address these issues.”

Earlier in the month, Marcos met with his economic team to discuss the priorities under his administration. Among those who attended were incoming executive secretary Vic Rodriguez, incoming Finance chief Benjamin Diokno, incoming Budget secretary Amenah Pangandaman, incoming Socioeconomic secretary Arsenio Balisacan, incoming Labor chief Bienvenido Laguesma, and incoming Public Works secretary Manuel "Manny" Bonoan.—AOL, GMA News