El Niño expected to threaten parts of Luzon, Mindanao, DA warns

The Department of Agriculture (DA) on Thursday warned that a potential El Niño could severely affect several regions in the country, with the prolonged dry spell expected to reduce crop yields and hurt farmers.

“Ang pinakamalaking tatamaan ng El Niño is Regions 1, 2, and 3, and Western Mindoro, among others. Of course, meron ding lugar sa Central Mindanao. But more or less, yung ibang area okay naman,” said Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. on the sidelines of the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines Food Security Forum.

(The areas that will be hardest hit by El Niño are Regions I, II, and III, and Western Mindoro, among others. Of course, there are also areas in Central Mindanao, but more or less, the situation in other areas is manageable.)

State weather bureau PAGASA has warned that a Super El Niño could develop in the latter part of 2026.

EXPLAINER: What is Super El Niño

Its possible impacts include prolonged droughts across Southeast Asia and Australia, heavy rainfall and flash floods in parts of South America, and stronger tropical cyclones affecting areas such as Hawaii, Japan, China, and the Philippines.

Conditions in the tropical Pacific are now favorable for the development of an El Niño phenomenon, which has a high likelihood of persisting until early next year, PAGASA said earlier.

Although experts emphasized that forecasts could still change, PAGASA has placed the country under an El Niño Watch and urged early preparations to mitigate possible impacts on agriculture, water supply, energy, public health, and public safety.

"There are areas na tinatawag nating agricultural drought - ibig sabihin niyan yung moisture ng lupa ay talagang wala na. Wala na tayong magagawa doon. In those areas, technically, we just have to support the farmers in whatever way possible,” said Tiu Laurel.

(There are areas experiencing what we call agricultural drought, which means the soil has virtually no moisture left. There's little we can do in those areas. Technically, we just have to support the farmers in whatever way possible.)

“But there are areas naman na mas maraming tubig as usual, doon tayo magdo-double down ng interventions-more seeds per hectare, more fertilizer support para yung deficit sa isang area, mag-i-increase sa kabila,” he added.

(But there are also areas with more water than usual. That's where we will double down on our interventions—more seeds per hectare and more fertilizer support—so that production gains in those areas can offset deficits elsewhere.)

The DA earlier projected that rice production could decline by as much as 700,000 metric tons, or about 3.5% of its annual production target, if a strong El Niño develops, posing significant risks to the country's food security and farmers' livelihoods.

Among the measures being implemented by the DA are cloud seeding to boost rainfall, the deployment of solar-powered irrigation systems, adjustments to the planting calendar to align with the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan), and crop diversification programs aimed at stabilizing farmers' incomes. —VBL, GMA News