July inflation could hit 6.6% — BSP

Inflation could accelerate to as high as 6.6% in July due to higher pump prices and power rates, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The central bank said it expects inflation to range between 5.6% to 6.6% in July, which compares with the 6.4% in June. This will also compare with the 0.9% print recorded in July 2025.

“Upside price pressures during the month could stem from elevated domestic petroleum pump prices, higher electricity rates, increasing fish prices, and the depreciation of the peso against the strengthening US dollar,” the BSP said in a statement.

Latest data available from the Department of Energy (DOE) show that year-to-date pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P56.72 per liter for gasoline, P57.75 per liter for diesel, and P52.61 per liter for kerosene.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) also raised its electricity household rate by P0.3428 per kilowatt-hour (kWH) in July, bringing the overall rate for a typical household to P14.8261 per kWh from P14.4833 per kWh in June.

The Philippine peso traded at the P61:$1 level for all the trading days of July, and closed Thursday, July 30, at P61.56:$1. It closed to a new all-time low of P61.847:$1 last Friday, July 24.

“These pressures are expected to be mitigated by lower prices of key food communities, including rice, meat, vegetables, and fruits,” the BSP said.

“The BSP will remain vigilant and guided by incoming data, particularly on inflation and growth prospects. It will continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for their impact on inflation and economic activity,” it added. — RSJ, GMA News