Surge in COVID-19 cases in NCR may be driven by new variants —OCTA Research

The presence of two coronavirus variants might have caused the spike in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, the OCTA Research said Wednesday.

Based on OCTA’s March 1 bulletin, the reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) is at 1.5, meaning the virus is continuously spreading. The group also said the surge, while still in its early stages, has spread “very quickly” in a short period.

“While it is not yet in all cities, we’re seeing that the trend is going up, the reproduction number is above 1 and we feel that the virus is spreading,” OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye told a virtual news conference.

“Given that there are variants already identified, we suspect that these two variants may be driving the increase in COVID-19 infections in many of the LGUs (local government units) observed.”

OCTA projects that Metro Manila will register up to 2,200 cases each day by the end of March based on a reproduction number of 1.5.

On Tuesday, the Department of Health reported that three of the six South Africa variant cases were traced in Pasay City.

More samples from Pasay were taken for genome sequencing last week after local health authorities saw a spike in COVID-19 transmission within households.

The Philippines has so far recorded 87 cases involving the United Kingdom variant.

Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, also a member of the OCTA Research, said there is no “adequate genome surveillance” yet to truly determine the extent of the variants in Metro Manila.

“We would have to model the spread of the variants in the NCR,” he said. “But the estimate is that it will take 6-8 weeks for variants to become dominant. This is based on the experience of other countries in the world.”

The OCTA Research said the “potentially serious surge” in the NCR can still be mitigated.

The researchers said the LGUs should further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation as well as to implement small, targeted lockdowns to reverse the increase in transmissions in their communities.

They also asked the public to follow the minimum health standards and encouraged health workers in the NCR and in the adjacent provinces to get themselves vaccinated while the situation is still manageable.

“There is a window of opportunity before this surge hits our hospitals,” Rye said.

In a separate briefing, Dr. Alethea De Guzman of the DOH's Epidemiology Bureau said the plateauing of COVID-19 cases across the Philippines during the previous three to four weeks was disrupted by a spike in infections in the last two weeks.

She said the number of cases in the country from February 14 to 27 was 13.72% higher than the figures from January 31 to February 13.

In contrast, the national case growth rate between January 17 to 30 and January 31 to February 13 was only -4.37%.

“‘Yung tuloy tuloy na pagtaas ng kaso, in terms of the region, ay nakikita natin ngayon sa Region 7, sa NCR, at kahit po sa CAR,” De Guzman said.

The country kicked off its mass vaccination program in hospitals on Monday using vaccine from Sinovac. —KBK, GMA News