New COVID-19 cases in Philippines could reach 15,000 daily —infectious disease expert

The Philippines could record about 15,000 new COVID-19 cases per day since it would take around seven to 10 days for a lockdown to take effect, an infectious disease expert said Sunday.

It has only been two days since the Philippine government placed Metro Manila and other provinces under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) due to the threat of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

"Posible 'yan. From 8,000 pumalo ng 11,000, so baka mas mataas pa diyan," Dr. Rontgene Solante, chairman of the Adult Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine unit of the San Lazaro Hospital said on Dobol B TV after he was asked if cases would reach more than 15,000.

(It's possible that it would reach 15,000. From 8,000, cases already rose to 11,000, so this might still go up.)

On Saturday, the Philippines documented 11,021 fresh cases of COVID-19, the highest since April 11, 2021.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Saturday said active COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) are projected to multiply by the thousands even with weeks of stricter community quarantines.

Vergeire said the country is already seeing the impact of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant with the continued surge in new COVID-19 cases.

She added that even with ECQ, active cases in Metro Manila may still reach around 18,000 by the end of September. 

Patients in 30s, 40s

The number of COVID-19 cases is also increasing among those in their early 30s to 40s as experts pointed out that the Delta variant may be behind the rise in COVID-19 cases, Solante said.

According to the World Health Organization, those vulnerable to COVID-19 are people with comorbidity and senior citizens.

Solante however revealed that private hospitals and San Lazaro Hospital observed an increase of cases among those in the younger age group.

"Medyo dumadami ang mga medyo bata.... from 27 years old, 30s and early 30s and 40s. Siguro ang nakikita natin dito because of this transmissibility, wala nang napipili ang virus. Alam natin kapag mataas ang hawaan kapag mataas ang viral load," said Solante.

(Even those who are 27 years old, or those in their early 30s and 40s [get COVID-19]. What we are looking at here, because of the transmissibility, is that the virus is not choosing anyone. We know that if the viral load is high, transmission will also worsen.)

Solante said a number of hospitals also found out that those unvaccinated are more likely to get severe infection compared to those who received vaccines.

"Pero mayroon din nabakunahan na severe din. Mas maigi pa rin na may bakuna (Some vaccinated folks also got severe infections. But it is still advisable to get inoculated)," he further pointed out.

Earlier, Dr. Ted Herbosa, special adviser to the National Task Force against COVID-19, said nine out of 10 ICU patients in the country have not received vaccines against the coronavirus.

Hospitals

Solante also said the occupancy rate in Manila-based San Lazaro Hospital's health care capacity is already increasing.

He said their utilization rate for COVID-19 bed capacity reached 60% and the intensive care unit occupancy soared to more than 80%.

Despite the possibility of a further spike in cases, Solante said the lockdown is still effective because it will intensify contact tracing.

"Nag-lo-lockdown tayo so mas madaling ma-contact trace sa lockdown dahil nandiyan lang sa community," the health expert said.

(We imposed a lockdown so contact tracing is easier because patients are just in the community.)

"Hopefully [kapag natapos] mag-ECQ, magpatuloy na hindi dumami ang kaso. Medyo mahirap. Naranasan natin na may ibang pasyente na 'di nakarating sa ospital, sa bahay pa lang namatay na," he further pointed out.

(Hopefully after the ECQ, cases will not continue to spike. It is difficult. We experienced before that patients were dying already in their houses.)

On Saturday, the total COVID-19 cases reached 1,649,341, with 1,544,443 recoveries and 28,835 fatalities. 

As virus infections rise, the highly contagious Delta variant cases also went up to 450.

The Department of Health said the Delta variant has been detected in all Metro Manila areas, the center of the country's economy.

With the Delta variant being 50% more contagious, the OCTA Research Team said the variant cases may have soared to 2,000 in the country. —KG, GMA News