OCTA: NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number increases to 'critical' 1.85

The reproduction number of the coronavirus causing COVID-19 has gone up to a critical 1.85 in the National Capital Region (NCR), the OCTA Research group said Saturday, amid the threat of the highly contagious Delta variant.

In its latest monitoring report, the OCTA Research also reported that the country's reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect, increased to 1.45.

The independent body also reported 13 local government units (LGUs) with critical number of new daily cases for the period of August 7 to 13.

They are the following:

• Navotas
• Tuguegarao
• Mariveles
• Makati
• Santa Rosa
• Lapu Lapu
• Pasay
• Imus
• Malolos
• Cebu City
• Cagayan de Oro
• General Trias
• Meycauayan

Interviewed on Super Radyo DZBB, OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said the 1.85 reproduction number means one COVID-19 positive person could infect two people.

NCR currently has 2,900 average daily cases, David said, with 20.77 daily attack rate.

"If this reaches 40, it is already at the same level with other countries with high level of infections like Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, or Indonesia," he said.

"If we would scale the population, what we see is the 20 daily attack rate is quite high," David added. 

In OCTA Research's monitoring report, Navotas recorded an average daily attack rate or ADAR (number of daily cases per 100,000) of 47.67, followed by Tuguegarao with 47.39.

"May ibang LGUs na nasa 40 na nga eh. Ito 'yung talagang medyo mabilis na 'yung hawaan (Other LGUs had an ADAR of 40 and up, meaning they have a slightly fast infection rate)," David said.

The OCTA Research fellow said it is possible that the country could surpass its record of 15,000 COVID-19 cases daily last April.

"It's possible na mahigitan natin 'yan. Kasi ang kaibahan ng April, nakontrol natin siya dahil sa NCR Plus lang ang hawaan. Pero ngayon kalat-kalat na eh," David said.

(It is possible we could surpass it. The difference in April is that we were able to control it because the infection was confined to NCR Plus. But now the infections are scattered.)

OCTA on Thursday reported that the country’s reproduction number stood at 1.41.

The Philippines on Friday reported 13,177 new COVID-19 cases, the highest daily infections tallied since April 2 when over 15,000 new cases were logged. This brought the nationwide tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases to 1,713,302.

The country’s active cases rose to 96,395, marking the first time that active cases surpassed 90,000 since April 24.

Total recoveries climbed to 1,587,069 while the death toll rose to 29,838, also the highest since April 9. —KG, GMA News