OCTA reiterates COVID-19 cases in NCR may have peaked; DOH says not yet

The rise in COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may have already peaked, independent expert group OCTA Research reiterated on Monday.

In its latest update, OCTA said the NCR had an average of 5,319 new cases from September 13 to 19, down 13% from the previous week’s tally of 5,916 cases. 

The reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each case can infect, decreased to 1.14 from 1.37 a week ago. A reproduction number below one indicates that the spread of the virus is slowing down. 

The positivity rate — the rate at which people test positive for the virus out of all who have been tested — fell to 23% from 25%. 

“The indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR, but the decrease in cases needs to be sustained before we can establish with certainty that cases have already peaked,” OCTA said. 

“There may still be spikes in new cases in the NCR over the next week due to some reporting backlog, but unless the trends change, the daily average in new cases in the NCR should continue to decrease," the group added.

OCTA on Saturday said the surge in COVID-19 cases in the NCR “may have already peaked” after it noted the reproduction number of the coronavirus went down to 1.22.

'Not yet'

In an online briefing on Monday, however, Department of Health (DOH) Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the rise in cases in the NCR has not yet peaked.

She said their projections showed that COVID-19 cases will peak in the NCR towards the end of September or by early October. 

“This delayed peak may be due to a slowdown in the case increases brought on by implemented community quarantine restrictions, improvement of PDITR (Prevent-Detect-Isolate-Treat-Reintegrate), and vaccination, thereby leading to a longer period before we reach the said peak, but with markedly smaller number of cases versus an early and steeper peak with a larger number of cases,” she said. 

Earlier, the DOH said daily COVID-19 cases in the NCR could range between 16,000 and 43,000 by September 30, but it clarified that the projection is “not cast in stone.”

“We noted that these estimates may differ from what we previously reported, probably because of the compliance to minimum public health standards, there is lower mobility, and vaccination coverage is higher than what was assumed and included in our projections,” Vergeire said. 

OCTA emphasized that the surge in the NCR is “still at a very high level,” citing the average daily attack rate of 36.77 cases per 100,000 population. 

“Even with a possible downtrend in new cases, the NCR will likely still have around 4,000 new cases per day by the end of September and more than 2,000 new cases per day by the end of October,” it said.

“This means the healthcare system in the NCR, which currently has 69% utilization for hospital beds and 77% utilization for ICUs per DOH, will likely continue to be at close to staffing capacity until October," the group added.

The DOH on Sunday reported 19,271 new COVID-19 infections, raising the number of active cases in the country to 178,196.

The new cases brought the country's total COVID-19 caseload to 2,366,749.

Total recoveries, meanwhile, increased to 2,151,765 while the death toll climbed to 36,788. —KG/AOL, GMA News