OCTA: NCR COVID-19 reproduction rate down to 0.47, nationwide to 0.55

COVID-19 cases in the Philippines are expected to decrease to pre-Delta surge by the end of October amid the continued decrease in reproduction numbers, OCTA Research said Thursday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted that reproduction numbers both nationwide and in the National Capital Region (NCR) continue to go down. 

As of latest monitoring by the independent research team, reproduction number in the entire country is 0.55 while NCR's is 0.47.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

"Current 7-day average in PH is 6416 and 1156 in the NCR," David said.

David said the nationwide seven-day average "is the lowest" since July.

"Based on current trends, the country is tracking at less than 5k new cases (7-day average) by end of October with less than 1k in NCR," David said.

"This means we expect number to return to pre-delta surge level by end of October," he added.

On Wednesday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 3,656 new COVID-19 cases, the lowest daily infections recorded since July 13.

The new infections bring the nationwide tally to 2,735,369. Active cases, meanwhile, stood at 67,061.

Of these cases, 77.9% are mild, 6.8% are asymptomatic, 8.69% are moderate, 4.6% are severe, and 2.0% are in critical condition.

Total recoveries climbed by 228 to 2,627,331, while five new fatalities pushed the death toll to 40,977. —KBK, GMA News