Philippine daily COVID-19 cases may decrease to 2,000 by November –OCTA

The number of daily coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the Philippines may decrease to 2,000 by the end of November, the OCTA Research group said Monday.

On Sunday, the country reported only 3,410 cases, bringing the tally to 2,787,276. 

“Kung magpatuloy ‘yung trend na pababa pa rin ‘yung bilang ng kaso ay maaring bumababa tayo to 2,000 cases per day sa buong bansa by end of November,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said during the Laging Handa briefing.

(If the downward trend continues, cases nationwide may decrease to 2,000 per day by the end of November.)

“Inaasahan natin sana magkatotoo ‘yan at kung mangyari ‘yan patuloy na magiging maganda ‘yung ating holiday sa December,” he added.

(We are hoping that this will happen and if it does, our holiday in December should be good.)

According to David, the positivity rate in the country was at 8%, slightly higher than the 5% recorded in the National Capital Region.

He explained that the national rate was faster as some provinces had a somewhat high positivity rate.

“‘Yung iba kahit na gumaganda ‘yung sitwasyon sa probinsya ay medyo mataas lang ‘yung positivity rate. Ibig sabihin, medyo kulang lang ‘yung testing natin sa ibang mga provinces,” David said.

(Though the situation in the provinces is getting better, they still have somewhat high positivity rates. This means that they lack testing.)

David said cases are on a downward trend in most of the provinces in the country, including Dumaguete, which was recently classified to be at critical risk for COVID-19.

“So, overall, pababa na ‘yung trend ng bilang ng kaso sa most provinces and LGUs sa Pilipinas. Mukhang gumaganda ‘yung sitwasyon natin,” he said.

(Overall, the trend is going down in most provinces and LGUs. It looks like our situation is getting better.)

Alert Level 2

Amid calls to place the NCR under an Alert Level 2, David said they see no reason to refrain from doing so at this time.

“We support ang pag-relax sa Alert Level 2 para makabawi ‘yung ating mga negosyo, but we should do so in a safe manner. Ganoon naman lagi ‘yung recommendation natin,” he said.

(We support the downgrade to Alert Level 2 so that businesses can recover, but we should do so in a safe manner. That’s always our recommendation.)

David said that OCTA saw no threatening variants in the country.

“Wala naman tayong nakikitang variant na threatening sa atin ngayon. Ang narinig natin ‘yung Delta plus… wala pa naman siya dito atsaka nasa lineage siya ng Delta variant,” he said.

(We are not seeing any threatening variants. We heard about the Delta plus… but it’s not yet in the country and it’s a lineage of the Delta variant.)

“So kumbaga ‘yung threats natin kakaonti lang,” he added.

(So we only have a few threats.)

With most of Metro Manila having been vaccinated against the illness, the chances of outbreaks or a resurgence were lower.

David also recommended restricting the 100% public transportation capacity to fully vaccinated individuals.

“Well, ‘yung recommendation namin… restrict sana ‘yan sa mga fully vaccinated na passengers. Pero sa ngayon naman malapit na tayo nasa 96% na tayo na first dose. It means ‘yung mga dults natin marami na,” he said.

(Our recommendation is to restrict it to fully vaccinated passengers. But since around 96% have received at least one dose, it means that many of our adults are now vaccinated.)

“So kung puro adults ‘yung sasakay diyan ‘yun nga most likely fully vaccinated na lahat,” he added.

(So if adults will be traveling, they’re most likely fully vaccinated already.)

The Department of Health (DOH) had previously said that it advised all local government units to be prepared for the downgrading of the alert level.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire also said that for the NCR to be downgraded to an alert level 2, it should have an average daily attack rate of 7 or less.  — DVM, GMA News