22,000 active COVID-19 cases possible by Nov. 15 if precautions maintained –DOH

The Philippines could have as few as 22,000 active cases by November 15 if the current measures against COVID-19 are maintained, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Saturday.

"Kapag na-maintain natin ang current mobility natin sa ngayon which is about 82%, at na-maintain natin 'yung compliance natin to minimum public health standards at detection to isolation natin ay nasa limang araw or less, tayo ay magkakaroon ng active cases na 22,000 by Nov. 15," Vergeire said at the Laging Handa public briefing, citing projections from the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (FASSSTER).

(If we maintain our current mobility, which is about 82%, and we maintain our compliance to minimum public health standards, and the detection to isolation is at five days or less, we will have 22,000 active cases by Nov. 15.)

Inversely, the country's active cases may reach up to 52,393 if mobility increases, Vergeire added.

"Kailangan maintindihan ng mga kababayan, [as of October 26] our active cases is at 53,642 here in the whole Philippines. Kung tayo ay magluluwag nang husto sa ating mga ginagawa, hindi tayo gagawa ng safety protocols, hahaba ang detection to isolation sa komunidad at ang ating mobility ay tataas pa rin, maaaring ganitong klaseng numero na meron tayo ngayon ay ganu'n pa rin hanggang sa end of December."

(The public needs to understand, [as of October 26] our active cases are at 53,642 across the whole Philippines. If we loosen restrictions too much, we will not observe safety protocols, detection to isolation in the community will be prolonged, and our mobility will increase, perhaps this kind of number that we have will still be the same by the end of December.)

"Pero kung tayo ay makapag-iimprove ng ating sitwasyon (But if we can improve our situation), we can go as low as 22,000 active cases for the whole Philippines by end of Nov. 15."

The DOH adopted FASSSTER as a tool to aid in disease surveillance in the country.

The DOH on Friday logged 2,376 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the country’s active cases to 37,377. — DVM, GMA News