OCTA: COVID-19 case growth rate in NCR down to 3%, reproduction number 3.22

Based on a 7-day moving average of new cases, the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region is "decreasing steadily," now down to 3% from 5% the previous day, the OCTA Research group said on Saturday.

"NCR daily growth rate steadily declining, now at just 3%. If this trend is real, we could expect 16 to 18k cases in the NCR today, and 15 to 16k tomorrow," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in a post on Twitter.

"Once the daily growth rate becomes negative, new cases in the NCR are decreasing," he added.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number of the virus also went down to 3.22 on January 11, OCTA Research said. The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

"While the decrease in growth rate is strong evidence that the trend in the NCR appears to be peaking, it is still subject to data backlog and late reports," OCTA Research said.

COVID-19 surge in some provinces seems to be slowing down 

David said the surge in COVID-19 cases could be slowing down in Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan.

“The surge may be slowing down in Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan. It is still maturing in Laguna, Pampanga, and Benguet. It is accelerating in Batangas and Isabela,” he said.

The OCTA fellow said the surge is still in its early stages in Cebu, Pangasinan, Quezon, Iloilo, Camarines Sur, Davao del Sur, and Negros Occidental, adding that it is “likely to be accelerating soon.”

Meanwhile, the average daily attack rates (ADAR) for some provinces are: Cavite (55.71), Rizal (58.27), Bulacan (46.72), Laguna (45.59), Pampanga (25.19), and Benguet (36.18).

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

The Philippines on Friday logged 37,207 new COVID-19 cases, the highest daily tally since the start of pandemic, increasing the nationwide count to 3,129,512.

The Department of Health said of the 37,207 reported cases on Friday, 36,577 or 98% occurred within the recent 14 days from January 1 to January 14, 2022.

The top regions with cases in the recent two weeks were NCR with 16,824 or 46%, followed by Region 4-A with 8,580 or 23% and Region 3 with 4,052 or 11%.

OCTA Research on Friday said NCR and at least six cities are at critical risk for COVID-19.

David said also at critical risk were Baguio, Naga in Bicol, Angeles in Pampanga, Santiago in Isabela, Dagupan in Pangasinan, and Lucena in Quezon. —with a report from Richa Noriega/KG/VBL, GMA News