Actual NCR COVID-19 cases may be 1.8x higher —OCTA

The actual COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may be 1.8 times higher than the reported numbers by health authorities, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Monday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David showed that this estimation was based on the antigen tests conducted by the Department of Transportation (DOTr) on Wednesday and Thursday among randomly-chosen railway passengers.

Actual cases in the NCR could be less than twice the official reported numbers of DOH, based on DOTr random antigen testing on January 26 - 27. This includes unreported cases. Note that on Jan 13, the estimate was about 10 times higher than reported numbers. @dzbb @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/L7YjgYq1T5

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 31, 2022

Only two people out of the 343 passengers tested at the MRT-3, LRT-1, LRT-2, and PNR on January 26 and 27 yielded positive results for COVID-19.

According to David, this data showed a positivity rate of 0.6% or less than one percent.

“Compared to January 12 to 13, that was at 12.5%, so that’s a significant reduction in the positivity rate. This confirms that the trend is going down,” David said during an online forum.

“If we project this to the entire population, you see that now, the actual number of cases maybe just less than twice the reported number of cases,” he added, noting that there is still a margin of error of ±5%.

On January 16, OCTA said that NCR COVID-19 cases may be six to 15 times higher than the official numbers reported.

The NCR along with Batanes, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, Biliran, Southern Leyte, and Basilan are back under Alert Level 2 from February 1 to 15, the Palace announced on Sunday.

The risk classification of the NCR also dropped from high risk to moderate risk last week.

The Department of Health on Monday reported 14,546 new COVID-19 infections, raising the Philippines' total number of confirmed cases to 3,560,202.—AOL, GMA News