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COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR now at 0.99 but downward trend not yet guaranteed —OCTA Research

COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region has gone down to 0.99 but there is no assurance yet that it signifies a downward trend, the OCTA Research Group said on Thursday.

"Bumaba na ang reproduction number natin. It’s 0.99 in NCR, in fact less than one na siya. Pero ngayon pa lang, medyo unstable pa ang trend. Hindi pa yan patuloy na pagbaba. Di pa yan guarantee na patuloy ang pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso," OCTA Research fellow Prof. Guido David said on Balitanghali.

(The reproduction number in NCR is now at 0.99. In fact, that is less than one. But the trend of COVID-19 cases is still unstable. That is not a guarantee that the number of cases is down.)

The reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 patient can infect. A reproduction number of one or higher is an indication of the continuous transmission of the virus.

David said the daily average of COVID-19 cases is now at 4,300 compared to the 5,100 two weeks ago. The positivity rate is also at 22%, which is lower compared to 25% that OCTA reported on April 10.

David said hospitals would remain congested as long as the Philippines records 3,000 cases daily.

On Wednesday, the Department of Health reported 9,227 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total tally to 962,307. Of the total number, 116,434 are active cases.

Metro Manila and the adjacent provinces of Bulacan, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal were placed under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) for two weeks in March and April amid the surge in COVID-19 cases.

The quarantine protocol has since been downgraded to modified ECQ, which will stay until the end of April unless extended by the government.  —KBK, GMA News