NCR COVID-19 reproduction rate at 0.35; nearly all other indicators down —OCTA

Reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) fell down to 0.35 during the November 29 to December 5, 2021 period, according to the latest report by independent group OCTA Research on Monday.

The number is way lower compared to 0.92 recorded during the same period last year, and only slightly lower compared to the 0.36 recorded during the November 26 to December 2, 2021 period.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

Average new cases per day also marked a significant decrease — from 370 last year to 112 this year.

"Comparing the NCR the past week with the same time period last year, the average number of cases is lower by 70%," OCTA said on Twitter.

For his part, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said, "The testing level is around the same, but nearly all indicators are better now [in the NCR]."

NCR recorded a 0.79 daily attack rate per 100,000 from November 29 to December 6 this year compared to 2.61 during the same period last year. For positivity rate, it was 1.1% this year compared to last year's 3.7%.

The region, meanwhile, conducted more tests this year — 18,029 average number compared to last year's 17,974.

David said hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has been lower this year compared to last year (21% vs. 37%), but the number of occupied ICU beds is higher (350 vs. 322).

OCTA last week said NCR can now be classified as "very low risk" for COVID-19.

In a Balitanghali interview, David said that Quezon City specifically reported fewer than 30 cases per day in its 7-day average. He said that with this data, only one person per 100,000 people gets infected with COVID-19 daily.

“Napakababa nito. Ito ‘yung parang, kung baga, standard natin for very low incidents rate,” he said.

(This is very low. This has become our standard for a very low incident rate.)

NCR will remain under Alert Level 2 until December 15, 2021, according to the government's COVID-19 task force.

Under Alert Level 2 — the second lowest in the new alert level system — certain establishments and activities are allowed at 50% capacity indoors for fully vaccinated adults (and minors, even if unvaccinated) and 70% capacity outdoors.

Omicron threat

Further, David said that this improved pandemic status could be maintained if the Omicron COVID-19 variant does not enter the Philippines’ borders.

“Nakita natin sa South Africa na napakabilis ng pagkalat nito. ‘Yung reproduction number na na-compute namin sa South Africa n’yan nasa 4. So, ganoon kabilis ‘yung hawaan, mas mabilis pa siya kesa Delta,” he said about the new variant which was first detected in South Africa.

(We could see the Omicron variant spread fast in South Africa. The reproduction number we have computed from there is at 4%. That’s how fast the infections are, which are faster than the Delta variant.)

“It’s at least twice as infectious [compared to] Delta,” he added.

David, however, noted that it is not yet clear if the Omicron variant, which has been classified as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization (WHO), poses severe illness as international studies report that only mild symptoms have been observed so far.

He reminded the public to continue following the minimum public health standards such as wearing of face masks and physical distancing, and get the primary doses of the COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the booster shots if possible.

He also asked the government to implement stricter border controls to prevent the Omicron variant from entering the country.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III already warned that the entry of the Omicron variant in the country is not a matter of if but when. —with Joahna Lei Casilao and Giselle Ombay/KBK/BM, GMA News