Robredo-Raffy Tulfo leads Sara-Imee in OCTA's hypothetical 2028 tandem match-up

The tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo registered a 44% backing among adult Filipinos, compared to the 40% gathered by Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos in the OCTA Research First Quarter Tugon ng Masa survey, which featured a hypothetical 2028 tandem match-up.

Meanwhile, 16% remain undecided, which OCTA said represents a "significant segment" that has yet to commit to either tandem.

The survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 probability respondents aged 18 and above, both male and female.

The survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have margins of error of ±6% for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, also at a 95% confidence level, according to the poll firm.

The survey was non-commissioned.

The survey question was: "If the May 2028 elections were to be held today and the following are the tandems for President and Vice President, which tandem would you vote for?" (Kung ang eleksyon ng Mayo 2028 ay isasagawa ngayon at ang mga sumusunod ay ang mga tambalan para sa pagka-Presidente at Bise-Presidente, aling tambalan ang inyong iboboto?).

"The Q1 2026 results suggest a competitive tandem preference landscape, with only four percentage points separating the Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Marcos tandems at the national level," OCTA said.

"While the Duterte-Marcos tandem remains a major contender, the emergence of the Robredo-Tulfo tandem marks the first time in TNM Surveys that a tandem has surpassed the support for Duterte-Marcos tandem," it added.

Across major areas, the Robredo-Tulfo tandem posts its strongest support in the National Capital Region (NCR) at 61%, followed by Balance Luzon at 57% and Visayas at 48%. However, its support is significantly lower in Mindanao, where only 5% of adult Filipinos say they would vote for the tandem, the firm said.

The Duterte-Marcos tandem, meanwhile, gathered support from Mindanao at 86%, Visayas at 40%, and Balance Luzon and NCR at 23%. —LDF, GMA News