Nat'l contingency plan for 'The Big One' in Metro Manila, nearby areas launched

The Office of the Civil Defense (OCD), in partnership with stakeholder government agencies, launched Thursday a consolidated contingency plan to respond to a powerful earthquake—including what is referred to as "The Big One"—should it strike Metro Manila and adjacent areas.

Government officials symbolically unveiled Thursday the 2026 Harmonized National Contingency Plan (NHCP) for High-Intensity Earthquake in the Greater Metro Manila Area at the OCD central office in Camp General Emilio Aguinaldo, Quezon City.

The 2026 HNCP serves as a guide for an organized government response if a powerful earthquake devastates the National Capital Region and adjacent areas.

In a press conference, OCD Administrator Harold Cabreras said the 2026 HNCP was prepared for a potential situation wherein Greater Metro Manila is devastated and emergency responders from different regions are tasked to assist.

The Greater Metro Manila Area refers to the National Capital Region and the adjacent provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Bulacan, and Pampanga.

"To give a general overview on the HNCP, we will assume na devastated ang greater Metro Manila, so initially, cut off ang lahat ng government (so initially, the government is totally cut off)," Cabreras said.

"Sa HNCP, naka-task na ang ang different regions to assist us. So we already identified the areas kung saan pupunta ang ating mga kababayan," he added.

(Under the HNCP, different agencies are tasked to assist us. So we already identified the areas where our countrymen should go.)

Cabreras also said national government agencies like the Department of Public Works and Highways, Department of Transportation, and uniformed services such as the Philippine Navy and Philippine Coast Guard are assigned specific tasks under the HNCP.

The launch of the 2026 HNCP also coincided with the Second Quarter nationwide Simultaneous Earthquake Drill 2026, where schools, local government units, and other institutions participate.

The earthquake drill also applied what was instructed in the 2026 HNCP.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has warned that "The Big One" — a magnitude-7.2 quake or greater in the Philippine capital and nearby areas — may leave a death toll over over 50,000 and at least 12% of residential buildings heavily damaged.

While earthquakes are impossible to predict, based on historical records, the West Valley Fault along the eastern side of Metro Manila is due for a major quake "within our generation or the next generation."

Response to earthquakes

The launch event comes less than two weeks after a magnitude-7.8 earthquake jolted offshore Maasim, Sarangani and several areas in Mindanao on June 8, leaving at least 78 people dead.

Tsunami waves of up to 1.4 meters were also recorded at several sea-level monitoring stations following the quake, according to PHIVOLCS.

PHIVOLCS Director Teresito Bacolcol said one of the key lessons from the recent earthquake is the need to strengthen the public's response to offshore earthquakes.

"We really need to improve on how people would respond to offshore earthquakes kasi nakita natin 'yung mga kababayan natin kahit nakita na nag-recede na yung dagat eh kukuha pa ng cellphone and vini-video pa," Bacolcol said.

(We really need to improve how people respond during offshore earthquakes, because we saw that even when the sea started to recede, some Filipinos started recording videos.)

"Isa sa mga dapat mas paigtingin pa is 'yung awareness ng mga tao living in coastal communities," he added.

(One of the things that should be further strengthened is the awareness of people living in coastal communities.)

According to the latest report of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, over 1.4 million people have been affected by the magnitude-7.8 earthquake across Mindanao. — VDV, GMA News