COVID-19 cases in Cebu City still on the rise —OCTA Research

New cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Cebu City are still on the rise, experts from the OCTA Research group said Tuesday, nearly two weeks after they sounded the alarm on a surge of infections in Cebu province.

In their latest report, the experts said the number of new cases in Cebu City rose by 30% from the previous week to 123 new infections daily from February 1 to 7.

The city’s positivity rate also increased to 10% while its attack rate reached 11.11 per 100,000 population, which falls under the “high risk” category in guidelines issued by the Department of Health (DOH).

“While the COVID-19 situation in Cebu City is still at a manageable level, the data indicates a continuing increase in new COVID-19 cases since the start of the year. This continues to be a serious cause of concern given that the new and more contagious UK B.1.1.7 variant has been identified in the area,” they said.

The DOH reported last week that a 54-year-old male returning overseas Filipino, whose local residence is in Talisay, Cebu, was found to have the UK coronavirus variant.

He has already recovered from COVID-19.

“The possibility that the more infectious UK variant is being transmitted in the area increases the challenge and the urgency for the concerned local governments,” the experts said, referring to the cities of Cebu, Mandaue, and Lapu-Lapu.

They said that the positivity rates in Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu remained above 10%. The World Health Organization’s benchmark is 5% or lower.

The researchers also urged local governments to consider a stricter implementation of their prevailing quarantine restrictions and intensify testing, tracing, and isolation efforts.

“These LGUs must be ready to consider the implementation of strict barangay lockdowns in areas that have already been identified as hotspots to suppress or mitigate viral transmission,” they said.

Cebu hospital occupancy

The OCTA Research group also warned that the hospital occupancy rate in Cebu City could surpass the critical level of 70% in two weeks.

“While the current usage is still manageable, at 40% as of February 7 (from 25% one month ago), the question is, if cases continue to increase at the current transmission rate, when would hospital occupancy could breach the 70% critical level,” they said.

The experts said it was possible that the hospital occupancy rate of Cebu City would breach 70% two to three weeks from Tuesday, February 9.

“The goal is to slow down the increase in new cases to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed,” they said.

The experts advised the Cebu City government to prepare for a shift to a stricter quarantine classification “should the increase in cases exacerbate to a level that threatens its health care system.”

They expressed confidence that the local government and health workers in the city will be able to rein in the surge with their “quick and appropriate” pandemic response.

On January 28, the experts said Cebu province, including Cebu City, had become a cause for “serious concern” due to a surge in COVID-10 infections.

NCR cases hold steady

Meanwhile, the OCTA group said there was no noticeable increase in the number of new cases in Metro Manila over the past week.

The reproduction number held steady at 1.02, while the positivity rate remained at 4%.

“Non-increasing trends” were also seen in Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

A decreasing trend was observed in Davao City and Baguio.

However, a daily attack rate of nearly 10 per 100,000 people was cited in Tabuk, Kalinga.

The Philippines has logged 540,227 cases as of Tuesday afternoon.—AOL, GMA News