PAGASA: PH weather 'neutral,' but El Niño likely by June–August

The Philippines remains under El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions—meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is currently affecting the climate—although the likelihood of an El Niño (a warming of ocean temperatures in the Pacific that can bring drier conditions) developing as early as June is increasing, the state weather bureau said on Wednesday.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) 195th Climate Forum on Wednesday, conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to remain ENSO-neutral until May 2026.

However, there is a 79% chance of a transition to El Niño during the June–July–August period, which may persist until the first quarter of 2027.

“Mas mataas ang tsansa na magkaroon ng El Niño, with an increasing probability of more than 70%,” said PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis.

(There is a higher chance of El Niño developing, with a probability of more than 70%.)

"For now, we see that it could begin as a weak El Niño and may intensify to at least a moderate to strong event," she added.

PAGASA said moderate to strong El Niño conditions are likely during the September–October–November season.

However, it is not ruling out the possibility of a strong to very strong El Niño by October–November–December or November–December–January.

Despite this, the agency said heavy rainfall events may still occur over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas, while fewer but potentially stronger tropical cyclones could develop.

Warmer conditions are also expected during the 2027 warm and dry season if El Niño persists into the following year.

PAGASA earlier issued an El Niño Watch in March to prepare the public for the 2026 dry season, when the probability of El Niño development was estimated at 55%.

The agency officially declared the end of La Niña on March 9.—MCG, GMA News