PH may see 9–17 cyclones until October 2026 — PAGASA

The Philippines may experience 9 to 17 tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from May to October 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

During its 195th Climate Forum on Wednesday, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis outlined the projected number of cyclones per month:

• May: 1–2
• June: 1–2
• July: 2–4
• August: 2–4
• September: 2–3
• October: 1–2

PAGASA noted that while fewer tropical cyclones are expected in the latter part of 2026, those that do form may intensify into typhoons or even super typhoons.

On average, about 20 tropical cyclones enter the PAR each year, with peak activity typically occurring from July to October.

Rainfall, temperature outlook

Most parts of the country are expected to experience near-normal rainfall from May to October.

Solis presented the following rainfall outlook for the next six months:

• May: 0% way below, 15% below normal, 43% near normal, 27% above normal
• June: 0% way below, 0% below normal, 85% near normal, 0% above normal
• July: 0% way below, 0% below normal, 85% near normal, 0% above normal
• August: 0% way below, 15% below normal, 67% near normal, 3% above normal
• September: 0% way below, 16% below normal, 66% near normal, 3% above normal
• October: 0% way below, 45% below normal, 40% near normal, 0% above normal

Meanwhile, near-average to slightly above-average temperatures are expected in the coming months:

• May:13.5–40.0°C
• June: 14.3–39.0°C
• July: 13.1–39.0°C
• August: 12.8–38.7°C
• September: 13.7–38.8°C
• October: 12.3–37.2°C

"Near- to slightly above-average conditions are expected in terms of mean temperature, although some areas may still experience slightly cooler-than-average temperatures," she said.—MCG, GMA News