PAGASA to launch impact-based forecasts in July for storm preparedness

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will roll out an impact-based forecasting (IBF) system in July to help the public better prepare for incoming storms.

The Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecasting and Early Warning System (MHIBFEWS) will issue advisories on a storm’s expected impact as early as three days before landfall.

“Meaning, ano yung magiging impact sa kanila pagdating ng bagyo in the next three days. Makikita nila ang minimum preparedness actions,” Edward Cajucom, national project director of MHIBFEWS, told GMA News Online in an interview.

(This means they will know the expected impact of the storm in the next three days and the minimum preparedness actions they need to take.)

“Unlike the traditional forecast, it is set to be released daily every 11 a.m. and will cover severe winds, flooding, storm surges, and landslide warnings, along with suggested minimum response measures,” he added.

Accessible through PAGASA’s landing page, the IBF will classify impacts into four levels: severe (red), significant (orange), minor (yellow), and minimal (green).

These impact levels will cover key sectors such as society and the economy, housing and buildings, agriculture and fisheries, transportation, health and safety, and lifelines and utilities.

National government agencies and local government units (LGUs) will also receive impact-based forecasts tailored to areas expected to be affected.

Cajucom said the IBF was developed to strengthen disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities ahead of severe weather events.

“Ine-enhance natin na maging proactive ang DRRM system ng Philippines,” Cajucom said.

(We are enhancing the Philippines’ disaster risk reduction and management system to make it more proactive.)

"We are building the capacity not only of the national government but also local governments so their anticipatory action and disaster preparedness can be improved, increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities," he added.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said a low-pressure area (LPA) is expected to bring rains over parts of Luzon and the Visayas on Tuesday.

In its 4 p.m. weather bulletin, PAGASA said the LPA may bring cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila, the Visayas, CALABARZON, the Bicol Region, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon.

As of 4 p.m., the LPA was located 165 kilometers east-northeast of Borongan City.— MCG, GMA News