Very strong El Niño likely from October 2026 to January 2027 — PAGASA

The country faces an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing between October 2026 and January 2027, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tuesday.

“Climate models suggest El Niño will likely intensify (81%) over the next few seasons and persist until [the] first half of 2027,” PAGASA said.

It added that there is a 97% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA made the forecast in its climate outlook for August 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically resulting in below-normal rainfall in the Philippines.

During El Niño, fewer tropical cyclones are expected to develop, although some may still reach typhoon or super typhoon intensity, the state weather bureau said.

PAGASA said a weak to moderate El Niño is currently present in the tropical Pacific.

It said a strong El Niño is likely to emerge during the July-to-September period.

By the end of August, the following areas are forecast to experience dry spell or drought conditions:

Dry spell:

• Eastern Samar
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Agusan del Norte
• Basilan
• Dinagat Islands
• Misamis Occidental
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Zamboanga del Norte
• Zamboanga del Sur
• Zamboanga Sibugay

Drought:

• Camarines Norte
• Catanduanes
• Biliran
• Cebu
• Negros Oriental
• Northern Samar
• Samar (Western Samar)
• Siquijor

A dry spell occurs when an area experiences below-normal rainfall for three consecutive months, or way below-normal rainfall for two consecutive months.

Drought occurs when an area experiences below-normal rainfall for five consecutive months, or way below-normal rainfall for three consecutive months. — MCG, GMA News