COVID-19 reproduction rate in NCR on the rise —OCTA Research

An uptrend in the reproduction rate of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has been observed and is projected to continue in the coming days, Dr. Guido David of the OCTA Research team said as the holiday season approaches.

The reproduction number (R0) or the average number of people infected by one person in a susceptible population is "now at 1.06 and increasing," David told GMA News reporter Joseph Morong on Monday.

The research team previously said that a value higher than one indicates the pandemic is spreading.

From 0.90 on December 1, NCR’s reproduction number hit 0.94 on December 5, then reached 0.96 on December 10. On Dec. 11, the R0 in the region was at 0.99, according to David on Sunday. It was 0.88 last November.

The reproduction number of 1.06 in the capital region was aligned with David's projection last Saturday that it will breach the 1.0 mark.

He has attributed the upward trend to holiday mobility.

The number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines is expected to reach close to half a million by the end of the year, according to David.

So far, the Philippines has recorded 449,400 COVID-19 cases. Of this number, 418,687 recovered while 8,733 died. The number of active COVID-19 cases is 21,980. 

Based on the Department of Health's data, almost half of the total COVID-19 infections in the country had been recorded in Metro Manila. As of December 13, there were 203,028 reported cases in the region, of which 192,764 recovered, 3,724 died, and 6,540 are still considered active cases. —KG, GMA News