NCR coronavirus reproduction rate goes up further —OCTA Research

The OCTA Research group on Sunday said the reproduction rate of the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 continued to go up in the National Capital Region.

As of December 11, the reproduction rate or Ro was at 0.99, based on a graph given by OCTA Research, according to GMA News reporter Joseph Morong.

"As of  latest data, Ro in NCR is at 0.99. It should be above 1 in 1-2 days, which is now a certainty," professor Guido David told GMA News.

"We  think (and hope) we will be able to weather the holiday increase in cases," he added.

The reproduction rate is the average number of people infected by one person in a susceptible population, according to the World Health Organization.

From 0.90 on December 1, NCR’s coronavirus reproduction number hit 0.94 on December 5, then reached 0.96 on December 10, the OCTA Research team said. It was 0.88 last November.

They have previously said a value higher than one indicates the pandemic is spreading.

Guido said the increase in the coronavirus reproduction rate in NCR could be attributed to the fact that more people are outside.

"It looks like this is the increase due to the holiday mobility. The upward trend is real but it is not necessarily permanent and this trend is reversible," David told GMA News on Saturday.

Interior and Local Government Secretary Eduardo Año on Sunday said the enforcement of minimum health protocols against the spread of COVID-19 is stricter this Christmas season.

Año said police visibility will be improved while barangay authorities will conduct patrols in concerned areas to remind them of these measures.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Saturday reported 1,301 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the nationwide tally to 448,331.

Of this number, 409,433 recovered while 8,730 died.

Davao del Norte recorded the highest number of new cases on Saturday with 96. This was followed by Quezon City with 76, Laguna with 59, and Rizal and Western Samar with 50, each.

OCTA Research previously tagged four local government units as “high risk” areas for COVID-19 due to the rising number of infections and hospital occupancy rates.

These are Makati City, Davao City, Mankayan, and Baguio City in Benguet.

Meanwhile, named provinces of concern due to the high number of new COVID-19 cases from Dec. 1 to 7 are Davao del Sur, Benguet, Isabela, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Panganisnan, Leyte and Bataan.

Quezon City, Pateros, Muntinlupa, Tugegarao (Cagayan), San Pablo (Laguna), La Trinidad (Benguet), and Balanga (Bataan) on the other hand were classified as “moderate-risk” LGUs. —KG, GMA News