OCTA Research warns of increasing COVID-19 cases in NCR

The number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region has been increasing in the first part of December, a member of the OCTA Research team said on Saturday.

Likewise, NCR's reproduction number has also been going up. According to the World Health Organization, the basic reproductive rate (R0) is the average number of people infected by one person in a susceptible population.

"The reproduction number in NCR has been increasing. The number of new
cases has also been increasing," UP professor Guido David, a member of the OCTA Research Team, told GMA News reporter Joseph Morong.

From 0.90 on December 1, NCR’s reproduction number hit 0.94 on December 5, then reached 0.96 on December 10. It was 0.88 last November. They have previously said a value higher than one indicates the pandemic is spreading.

“We think this will pass 1 by next week,” David said.

At the end of November, the OCTA Research team has classified NCR and seven other places as areas of concern due to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

The other places are Davao del Sur, Quezon, Negros Occidental, Pampanga, Bulacan, Misamis Oriental and Western Samar.

In a separate interview, Prof. Ranjit Rye of OCTA Research said the reproduction number of the coronavirus in the country is already past 1.

"Lagpas na sa 1 ang reproduction number ng COVID sa bansa," Rye said in an interview on Dobol B sa News TV.

"May ilang lugar sa bansa na nakapagtala na ng pagtaas sa kaso ng COVID-19 ngayong Disyembre," he aqdded.

Factors

Rye cited several factors that led to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country.

"Isa sa mga pangunahing dahilan ng pagtaas ng kaso ng COVID-19 ay muling pagbubukas ng ekonomiya," he said.

"May ilang kababayan din tayong nagpakakumpiyansa kaya tumaas ang kaso ng COVID-19," Rye said, adding that not everyone wears face mask and face shield in public places.

"May ilang LGU na nagkukulang sa enforcement ng health protocols," he said.

Asked for comment, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Saturday said the Department of Health has been continually giving the public reminders to observe minimum health standards.

“We have been reminding the public to continue to comply with minimum public health standards to avoid a possible surge due to the holiday season," Vergeire told GMA News.

Christmas gift

Rye urged the public to observe health protocols and take care of one's health as a Christmas gift to the self and to the country.

"Christmas gift na natin sa ating sarili at sa ating bansa ang huwag mahawa ng COVID-19," he said.

"Maaaring magdiwang ng Pasko na hindi nagpapabaya... Ang goal ay magkaroon ng Merry Christmas, hindi ICU Christmas," Rye said.

The professor also urged the government to do more testing and contact tracing.

"Kailangan pag-ibayuhin pa ang testing at contact tracing," Rye said.

"For the past few months naman, makikita na ang mga improvement sa COVID-19 response ng bansa...Ang panawagan namin, sana makinig tayo sa siyensya at patuloy na mag-ingat at magtulungan. Nandiyan pa ang banta ng COVID-19," he added.

The OCTA Research Team is composed of professors David, Rye, Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, with contributions from Erwin Alampay, Eero Rosini Brillantes, Benjamin Co, Bernard Egwolf, Franco Felizarta, Troy Gepte, Bryan Albert Lim, Rodrigo Angelo Ong, Michael Tee, and Benjamin Vallejo, Jr.

The country has recorded 447,039 COVID-19 cases as of Friday. Of this number, 409,329 recovered while 8,709 died.

The Philippines is eyeing to vaccinate around 25 million Filipinos against COVID-19 in 2021, vaccine czar and National Task Force against COVID-19 chief implementer Carlito Galvez Jr. said Wednesday.

"Our target is 25 million. Based on the availability of the vaccine, we can expand it to 30 to 35 million,” he said in an ANC interview.

The Philippines has secured only 2.6 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines from British firm AstraZeneca thus far, a volume which is only good for one million people. 

As this developed, the Philippine government is still negotiating to secure COVID-19 vaccine supply from pharmaceutical firms Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, Sinovac, and Gamaleya, among others.

Only COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna (both 95%) and AstraZeneca (90%) have been proven largely effective after human trials so far.

The Philippines’ Food and Drug Administration, however, has yet to issue an emergency use authorization for any COVID-19 vaccine. —With a report from Ted Cordero/KG, GMA News