DOH: Active cases could rise to 52,000 by Dec. 15 if mobility increased, rules violated

The Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday projected that the country's active COVID-19 cases nationwide could go as high as 52,000 by December 15 should the mobility of people increase while health protocols are violated.

Health Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said that the projections are based on the mobility of areas, vaccination coverage, the detection-to-isolation time, and the adherence to minimum public health standards (MPHS).

The DOH warned that with greater mobility, a lower adherence to protocols, a lower detection-to-isolation time, and the same vaccination rates, infections can go as high as 52,393.

Meanwhile, active cases can go as low as 2,113 if mobility, adherence to public health standards, and detection-to-isolation time are maintained and vaccination rates are improved.

OCTA, an independent monitoring group, previously said that daily new cases in the country may decrease to 2,000 by the end of November.

“Tayo ay nagbibigay ng projections na ito dahil kakatapos lang po ng isang major holiday and there will be more holidays coming up,” De Guzman said during the DOH Kapihan Session.

(We gave these projections because a major holiday just occurred and there will be more holidays coming up.)

“While we cannot prevent people from becoming mobile, we need our communities to ensure na ang pagsunod natin sa ating MPHS ay maging strikto at isa pang assumption nabanggit ko dito ‘yung ating vaccination coverage,” she added.

(While we cannot prevent people from becoming mobile, we need our communities to ensure strict compliance with MPHS.)

In the National Capital Region, cases can go down to 1,035 if the mobility, adherence to protocols, and the detection-to-isolation time is maintained.

However, cases can go as high as 3,535 with a higher mobility, a lower adherence to health protocols, and a slower detection-to-solation time.

De Guzman clarified that the data used in the projection were from a week ago.

“Pero posible na dahil ang numero natin ay tuloy-tuloy bumababa, kung siya ay uulitin natin ngayon, posibleng iba na. Posibleng from 1,000 it might be a bit lower,” she said.

(It’s possible that since our cases are going down, if we made the projection today, the result could be different. It might be lower than 1,000.)

She said the projections have been presented to the Inter-Agency Task Force against Emerging Infectious Diseases.

“It was well received naman. They understood it. And I think it has been our message ever since na kailangan it’s not just one thing that we can do. It should be a combination of interventions to push these numbers down,” she said.

“And natututo naman tayo na, sa experience natin, kailangan ma-sustain ito. And that goes really continuing the interventions that we have and we can’t let loose. Or parang kailangan ma-sustain yung gains naman natin,” she added.

(And I think we learned that we need to sustain this. And that goes really continuing the interventions that we have and we can’t let loose. Or like we need to sustain our gains.)

Cagayan, CAR at moderate risk

According to De Guzman, the Philippines and NCR are at low risk for COVID-19.

The Philippines recorded an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 4.11 per 100,000 individuals. It has a bed utilization rate is at 33.65%, a mechanical ventilator utilization rate at 31.41%, and an ICU utilization rate of 45.18%

The NCR, meanwhile, has an ADAR of 5.97 per 100,000 with a bed utilization rate of 29.74%, a mechanical ventilator utilization rate of 29.32%, and an ICU utilization rate of 38.63%.

Meanwhile, Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region remain at moderate risk classification for COVID-19.

“Even though their two-week growth rates are already negative, mataaas pa po kasi [it's still high]. Their ADAR is still above 7 and is at high-risk kaya po moderate risk classification sila,” she said.

Cagayan Valley has an ADAR of 13.59 while CAR has an ADAR OF 18.80.

5 areas under Alert Level 4

Meanwhile, the DOH also flagged five areas under Alert Level 4: Catanduanes, Benguet, Ifugao, Negros Oriental, and the City of Santiago.

Of these five, Catanduanes province is classified at high risk while the others are at moderate risk.

“Mapapansin natin na ang mga lugar na ito ay merong either a high risk bed utilization or ICU utilization or para sa mga probinsya ng Benguet, Negros Orietnal, and the City of Santiago, both its total bed and ICU bed utilizations are at high risk,” she said.

(You’ll notice that these areas have either high-risk bed utilization or ICU utilization. For the provinces of Benguet, Negros) Oriental, and the City of Santiago, both the total bed and ICU bed utilization are at high risk.)

Decline slowing down

De Guzman said the decline in cases in the country and the NCR is slowing down.

She said that the country had an average daily case count of 4,183 from October 26 to November 1, only 14% lower than the 4,886 cases from October 19 to October 25.

The DOH previously recorded a 35% decrease in the average daily reported cases.

“So bale ito ‘yung nababanggit natin na may nakikita tayong pagbagal sa ating pagbaba. It is still going down but the decline is lower than the previous weeks,” she said.

(So this is what we mentioned that the decline is slowing down. It is still going down but the decline is lower than the previous weeks.)

Meanwhile, data also showed that the average daily reported cases in NCR went down to 770 from October 26 to November 1, 14% lower than the 898 average reported from October 19 to October 25.

“Ito ay nakakita din tayo na parang sa national, no, the decline is continuous, but it is slower than the previous weeks,” she said.

(We saw this in the national, the decline is continuous, but it is slower than the previous weeks.)

The DOH also observed a rapid decline in COVID-19 fatalities in October.

“We’re only averaging 73 deaths as of the end of October versus the highest average natin nitong [August] at 174 deaths per day,” she said.

On Tuesday, the DOH reported 2,303 new cases and 128 fatalities. This brings the nationwide tally of cases to 2,792,656. — BM, GMA News